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JPM · Forward model · Asset & Wealth Management · Bull case

What has to happen in Asset & Wealth Management

Model as of

This page changes Asset & Wealth Management inside the complete JPM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JPM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $715.98 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $15.54B 13% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $67.17B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

IB pipeline converts, wholesale deposits keep outrunning the plan, AUM compounds, and CCB keeps adding checking accounts. What this case does NOT reach is Barnum's $105.5B NII as a numbered 2026 print — that is the named case — and it does not treat 15% retail deposit share as a 2026 event.

Asset & Wealth Management

Basis quarter$6.85B
Final quarter$15.54B
Implied CAGR+18%
Final revenue mix13%

Asset management plus the global private bank. $6.9B in the basis quarter, +19% year over year, 48% ROE, 38% pretax. AUM $5.1T with $50B of long-term net inflows. Management fees are 62% of revenue, so AUM is the volume tell and not a subscription driver.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $6.07B Reported
2025 Q4 $6.52B Reported
2026 Q1 $6.37B Reported
2026 Q2 $6.85B Reported
Asset ManagementGlobal Private Bank
Sequential growth +4.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% 4% QoQ, below the 7.5% Q1-to-Q2 print. AUM +18% YoY supports a mid-single-digit sequential.
Asset & Wealth Management

Latest: $15.54B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $5.73B
2025Q2 $5.76B
2025Q3 $6.07B
2025Q4 $6.52B
2026Q1 $6.37B
2026Q2 $6.85B
2026Q3E $7.23B
2026Q4E $7.61B
2027Q1E $7.99B
2027Q2E $8.37B
2027Q3E $8.76B
2027Q4E $9.15B
2028Q1E $9.54B
2028Q2E $9.94B
2028Q3E $10.34B
2028Q4E $10.76B
2029Q1E $11.18B
2029Q2E $11.61B
2029Q3E $12.06B
2029Q4E $12.51B
2030Q1E $12.98B
2030Q2E $13.46B
2030Q3E $13.96B
2030Q4E $14.47B
2031Q1E $14.99B
2031Q2E $15.54B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • A growth driver rather than AUM × fee. Asset management fees $4,227M of $6,851M; the rest is private-bank NII and brokerage. Charging a fee on $5.14T would ignore that mix.
  • AUM $5,140B, client assets $7,663B, long-term net inflows $50B. The Q1 dip to $6,374M from Q4 $6,516M is seasonal fees, not a franchise break.
  • Pretax 38.4% matches the disclosed 38% AWM pretax-margin ratio. Terminal 38% holds that rather than expanding it.
  • Asset Management $3,320M and Global Private Bank $3,531M are revenue sub-lines. Pretax is published only for AWM as a whole, plus the two pretax-margin ratios.
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