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GEV · Forward model · Power · Bear case

What has to happen in Power

Model as of

This page changes Power inside the complete GEV model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GEV forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $395.51 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $8.26B 58% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $17.81B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Slot reservations do not convert at the rate the pipeline implies, Wind losses run past the guided turn, and the multiple normalises to 13x. This is not a demand collapse - it is the order book converting more slowly and at lower margin than the ramp assumes. 63 of the 116 GW under contract are reservation agreements rather than booked orders, and Wind orders were already down 40% organically in the basis quarter. Fair value $395.51, 56.0% below the traded price.

Power

Basis quarter$5.48B
Final quarter$8.26B
Implied CAGR+9%
Final revenue mix58%

Gas, nuclear, hydro and steam generation equipment plus the multi-decade service contracts on the installed fleet. Power is supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained: 116 GW of gas equipment sat under contract at 30 June 2026 against roughly 20 GW of annual turbine output, so the line is set by how fast GE Vernova can build, and management has dated that ramp to 2030.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $4.84B Reported
2025 Q4 $5.75B Reported
2026 Q1 $4.97B Reported
2026 Q2 $5.48B Reported
Gas Power equipmentGas Power servicesNuclear PowerHydro and Steam Power
Gas turbine output 5/qtr growing +2.4% per quarter 20 GW of guided annual gas turbine output divided by four quarters.
Power revenue per GW $1.13B drifting +4.3% per quarter Deseasonalised Q2 revenue over 5.0 GW. Carries services and non-gas, not a turbine price.
Power

Latest: $8.26B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q2 $4.46B
2024Q3 $4.21B
2024Q4 $5.43B
2025Q1 $4.42B
2025Q2 $4.76B
2025Q3 $4.84B
2025Q4 $5.75B
2026Q1 $4.97B
2026Q2 $5.48B
2026Q3E $5.76B
2026Q4E $7.09B
2027Q1E $5.96B
2027Q2E $6.44B
2027Q3E $6.57B
2027Q4E $7.93B
2028Q1E $6.58B
2028Q2E $7.05B
2028Q3E $7.16B
2028Q4E $8.60B
2029Q1E $7.12B
2029Q2E $7.62B
2029Q3E $7.72B
2029Q4E $9.28B
2030Q1E $7.68B
2030Q2E $8.21B
2030Q3E $8.33B
2030Q4E $9.79B
2031Q1E $7.91B
2031Q2E $8.26B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Volume is the DISCLOSED ramp, not a fitted growth rate. Management states 20 GW of annual gas turbine output from the third quarter of 2026, 24 GW in 2028 and 30 GW in 2030; compounding 2.4% a quarter from 5.0 GW reproduces all three, summing to 24.5 GW across the four 2028 quarters against the stated 24 GW, and stopping at the 7.5 GW ceiling.
  • Revenue per GW is a monetisation ratio, not a turbine selling price. It deliberately carries Gas Power services, Nuclear, Hydro and Steam as well as gas equipment, because those scale with the installed fleet the ramp is building. It is derived by deseasonalising the 2026 Q2 segment revenue of $5,477m by its own 0.9709 factor and dividing by 5.0 GW.
  • The 3 GW of equipment SHIPPED in 2026 Q2 is a different measure from the 20 GW of annual OUTPUT in the ramp: the first is backlog converted to delivery in one quarter, the second is management's production run-rate for the year. The model uses the second and never mixes them.
  • Power is kept whole. The release discusses Gas Power equipment, Gas Power services, Nuclear and aeroderivatives separately and even gives turbine unit counts, but publishes no quarterly revenue for any of them. Splitting the segment on prose alone would invent history.
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