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GEV · Forward model · Power · 30 GW by 2030 case

What has to happen in Power

Model as of

This page changes Power inside the complete GEV model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GEV forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $857.83 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $11.39B 61% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $27.53B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The CEO's stated production case run to its end: gas turbine output reaching the full 30 GW a year by 2030 rather than the 7.3 GW a quarter the base case compounds to, with Power holding the disclosed 22% segment margin, and a 20x exit. This is the claim under test, modelled as management states it. It gets to $857.83 - still 4.5% BELOW the traded price. That is the honest result and worth saying plainly: delivering the full stated production ramp, on the stated margin, does not on its own justify $898.53. The market is also paying for a multiple this case does not assume.

Power

Basis quarter$5.48B
Final quarter$11.39B
Implied CAGR+16%
Final revenue mix61%

Gas, nuclear, hydro and steam generation equipment plus the multi-decade service contracts on the installed fleet. Power is supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained: 116 GW of gas equipment sat under contract at 30 June 2026 against roughly 20 GW of annual turbine output, so the line is set by how fast GE Vernova can build, and management has dated that ramp to 2030.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $4.84B Reported
2025 Q4 $5.75B Reported
2026 Q1 $4.97B Reported
2026 Q2 $5.48B Reported
Gas Power equipmentGas Power servicesNuclear PowerHydro and Steam Power
Gas turbine output 5/qtr growing +2.4% per quarter 20 GW of guided annual gas turbine output divided by four quarters.
Power revenue per GW $1.13B drifting +4.3% per quarter Deseasonalised Q2 revenue over 5.0 GW. Carries services and non-gas, not a turbine price.
Power

Latest: $11.39B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q2 $4.46B
2024Q3 $4.21B
2024Q4 $5.43B
2025Q1 $4.42B
2025Q2 $4.76B
2025Q3 $4.84B
2025Q4 $5.75B
2026Q1 $4.97B
2026Q2 $5.48B
2026Q3E $5.85B
2026Q4E $7.32B
2027Q1E $6.26B
2027Q2E $6.87B
2027Q3E $7.12B
2027Q4E $8.73B
2028Q1E $7.36B
2028Q2E $8.02B
2028Q3E $8.27B
2028Q4E $10.09B
2029Q1E $8.50B
2029Q2E $9.24B
2029Q3E $9.51B
2029Q4E $11.61B
2030Q1E $9.77B
2030Q2E $10.62B
2030Q3E $10.93B
2030Q4E $13.06B
2031Q1E $10.73B
2031Q2E $11.39B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Volume is the DISCLOSED ramp, not a fitted growth rate. Management states 20 GW of annual gas turbine output from the third quarter of 2026, 24 GW in 2028 and 30 GW in 2030; compounding 2.4% a quarter from 5.0 GW reproduces all three, summing to 24.5 GW across the four 2028 quarters against the stated 24 GW, and stopping at the 7.5 GW ceiling.
  • Revenue per GW is a monetisation ratio, not a turbine selling price. It deliberately carries Gas Power services, Nuclear, Hydro and Steam as well as gas equipment, because those scale with the installed fleet the ramp is building. It is derived by deseasonalising the 2026 Q2 segment revenue of $5,477m by its own 0.9709 factor and dividing by 5.0 GW.
  • The 3 GW of equipment SHIPPED in 2026 Q2 is a different measure from the 20 GW of annual OUTPUT in the ramp: the first is backlog converted to delivery in one quarter, the second is management's production run-rate for the year. The model uses the second and never mixes them.
  • Power is kept whole. The release discusses Gas Power equipment, Gas Power services, Nuclear and aeroderivatives separately and even gives turbine unit counts, but publishes no quarterly revenue for any of them. Splitting the segment on prose alone would invent history.
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