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GEV · Forward model · Electrification · Bear case

What has to happen in Electrification

Model as of

This page changes Electrification inside the complete GEV model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GEV forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $395.51 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $4.71B 33% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $9.64B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Slot reservations do not convert at the rate the pipeline implies, Wind losses run past the guided turn, and the multiple normalises to 13x. This is not a demand collapse - it is the order book converting more slowly and at lower margin than the ramp assumes. 63 of the 116 GW under contract are reservation agreements rather than booked orders, and Wind orders were already down 40% organically in the basis quarter. Fair value $395.51, 56.0% below the traded price.

Electrification

Basis quarter$3.64B
Final quarter$4.71B
Implied CAGR+5%
Final revenue mix33%

Grid equipment - transformers, switchgear, HVDC and substation solutions - plus power conversion and storage, now including all of Prolec GE. Demand runs far ahead of delivery: a book-to-bill of about 1.7 in the basis quarter and equipment backlog up 69% year over year, with data centres the fastest-growing end market.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.60B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.96B Reported
2026 Q1 $2.96B Reported
2026 Q2 $3.64B Reported
Power TransmissionGrid Systems IntegrationPower Conversion & StorageProlec GE
Sequential growth +1.5%/qtr decaying toward +3.0% Deseasonalised trend that lands 2026 revenue on $14.75bn, the midpoint of guidance.
Electrification

Latest: $4.71B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q2 $1.79B
2024Q3 $1.93B
2024Q4 $2.18B
2025Q1 $1.88B
2025Q2 $2.20B
2025Q3 $2.60B
2025Q4 $2.96B
2026Q1 $2.96B
2026Q2 $3.64B
2026Q3E $3.92B
2026Q4E $4.11B
2027Q1E $3.43B
2027Q2E $3.73B
2027Q3E $4.05B
2027Q4E $4.26B
2028Q1E $3.57B
2028Q2E $3.90B
2028Q3E $4.24B
2028Q4E $4.48B
2029Q1E $3.76B
2029Q2E $4.12B
2029Q3E $4.50B
2029Q4E $4.76B
2030Q1E $4.00B
2030Q2E $4.39B
2030Q3E $4.80B
2030Q4E $5.08B
2031Q1E $4.28B
2031Q2E $4.71B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Prolec GE moved from a 50%-owned equity-method holding to full consolidation when GE Vernova bought the remaining half, completing on 2 February 2026. It is inside the 2026 Q1 and 2026 Q2 actuals and inside the guided $14.5-15.0bn range, so the basis level and the guidance agree and the acquisition must not be added again on top.
  • This is why reported and organic growth diverge so widely: Electrification revenue rose 68% on a GAAP basis in the basis quarter but 29% organically. The model is anchored on the guided GAAP dollar range rather than on an organic rate, so the projection should be read against dollars, not against the organic figure.
  • The Q1 seasonal factor is the least reliable number in this vertical. Prolec consolidated during 2026 Q1 and mechanically lifted that quarter, so the 2026 sequential read contradicts the 2025 one. The factor rests on the 2025 observation and the true Q1 trough is probably shallower than the one shown.
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