GEV · Forward model · Power
What has to happen in Power
Model as of
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Power
Basis quarter$5.48B
Final quarter$10.10B
Implied CAGR+13%
Final revenue mix58%
Gas, nuclear, hydro and steam generation equipment plus the multi-decade service contracts on the installed fleet. Power is supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained: 116 GW of gas equipment sat under contract at 30 June 2026 against roughly 20 GW of annual turbine output, so the line is set by how fast GE Vernova can build, and management has dated that ramp to 2030.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$4.84B
Reported
2025 Q4
$5.75B
Reported
2026 Q1
$4.97B
Reported
2026 Q2
$5.48B
Reported
Gas Power equipmentGas Power servicesNuclear PowerHydro and Steam Power
Gas turbine output
5/qtr
growing +2.4% per quarter
20 GW of guided annual gas turbine output divided by four quarters.
Power revenue per GW
$1.13B
drifting +4.3% per quarter
Deseasonalised Q2 revenue over 5.0 GW. Carries services and non-gas, not a turbine price.
Power
Latest: $10.10B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q2 | $4.46B |
| 2024Q3 | $4.21B |
| 2024Q4 | $5.43B |
| 2025Q1 | $4.42B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.76B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.84B |
| 2025Q4 | $5.75B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.97B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.48B |
| 2026Q3E | $5.82B |
| 2026Q4E | $7.23B |
| 2027Q1E | $6.14B |
| 2027Q2E | $6.71B |
| 2027Q3E | $6.91B |
| 2027Q4E | $8.42B |
| 2028Q1E | $7.06B |
| 2028Q2E | $7.64B |
| 2028Q3E | $7.83B |
| 2028Q4E | $9.51B |
| 2029Q1E | $7.95B |
| 2029Q2E | $8.60B |
| 2029Q3E | $8.80B |
| 2029Q4E | $10.68B |
| 2030Q1E | $8.93B |
| 2030Q2E | $9.65B |
| 2030Q3E | $9.88B |
| 2030Q4E | $11.73B |
| 2031Q1E | $9.58B |
| 2031Q2E | $10.10B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Volume is the DISCLOSED ramp, not a fitted growth rate. Management states 20 GW of annual gas turbine output from the third quarter of 2026, 24 GW in 2028 and 30 GW in 2030; compounding 2.4% a quarter from 5.0 GW reproduces all three, summing to 24.5 GW across the four 2028 quarters against the stated 24 GW, and stopping at the 7.5 GW ceiling.
- Revenue per GW is a monetisation ratio, not a turbine selling price. It deliberately carries Gas Power services, Nuclear, Hydro and Steam as well as gas equipment, because those scale with the installed fleet the ramp is building. It is derived by deseasonalising the 2026 Q2 segment revenue of $5,477m by its own 0.9709 factor and dividing by 5.0 GW.
- The 3 GW of equipment SHIPPED in 2026 Q2 is a different measure from the 20 GW of annual OUTPUT in the ramp: the first is backlog converted to delivery in one quarter, the second is management's production run-rate for the year. The model uses the second and never mixes them.
- Power is kept whole. The release discusses Gas Power equipment, Gas Power services, Nuclear and aeroderivatives separately and even gives turbine unit counts, but publishes no quarterly revenue for any of them. Splitting the segment on prose alone would invent history.