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GEV · Forward model · Wind · Bear case

What has to happen in Wind

Model as of

This page changes Wind inside the complete GEV model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GEV forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $395.51 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.22B 9% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$205M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Slot reservations do not convert at the rate the pipeline implies, Wind losses run past the guided turn, and the multiple normalises to 13x. This is not a demand collapse - it is the order book converting more slowly and at lower margin than the ramp assumes. 63 of the 116 GW under contract are reservation agreements rather than booked orders, and Wind orders were already down 40% organically in the basis quarter. Fair value $395.51, 56.0% below the traded price.

Wind

Basis quarter$2.03B
Final quarter$1.22B
Implied CAGR−10%
Final revenue mix9%

Onshore and offshore wind turbines and their services. This is the segment the company is deliberately shrinking: orders fell 40% organically in the basis quarter, revenue is guided down low-double digits for 2026, and every reported quarter but one has lost money at the segment line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.65B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.37B Reported
2026 Q1 $1.43B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.03B Reported
Onshore Wind equipmentOnshore Wind servicesOffshore Wind
Sequential growth −5.7%/qtr decaying toward +0.5% Deseasonalised trend landing 2026 revenue 11% below 2025, inside guided low-double digits.
Wind

Latest: $1.22B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q2 $2.06B
2024Q3 $2.89B
2024Q4 $3.11B
2025Q1 $1.85B
2025Q2 $2.25B
2025Q3 $2.65B
2025Q4 $2.37B
2026Q1 $1.43B
2026Q2 $2.03B
2026Q3E $2.37B
2026Q4E $2.21B
2027Q1E $1.33B
2027Q2E $1.62B
2027Q3E $1.96B
2027Q4E $1.87B
2028Q1E $1.15B
2028Q2E $1.43B
2028Q3E $1.76B
2028Q4E $1.70B
2029Q1E $1.06B
2029Q2E $1.33B
2029Q3E $1.64B
2029Q4E $1.60B
2030Q1E $1.00B
2030Q2E $1.26B
2030Q3E $1.57B
2030Q4E $1.54B
2031Q1E $964M
2031Q2E $1.22B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This is the one place the model knowingly sits BELOW guidance. Management guides 2026 Wind segment EBITDA losses of about $400m, but the first half alone lost $657m, so the guide implies roughly +$257m of profit in the second half - a swing from the basis quarter's (13.6)% margin to about +5.5% in two quarters. A monotone glide can only reproduce that at a rate near 0.9, which would reach the 2028 terminal margin two years early and overstate Wind for the rest of the horizon.
  • The 0.45 glide used here instead produces about $(0.8)bn of 2026 Wind segment EBITDA against the guided $(0.4)bn, and reaches the disclosed 6% margin during 2028 rather than in 2026. The model is therefore deliberately more conservative than management on this segment, by roughly 0.8% of company revenue.
  • Wind carries the strongest seasonality of the three segments and the most convincing evidence for it: the first-quarter trough replicates almost exactly across both observable years, at 59.5% of the prior fourth quarter in 2025 and 60.5% in 2026.
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