GEV · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-09-01

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

BASIS. GE Vernova was spun out of General Electric on 2 April 2024, so it has only nine standalone reported quarters, 2024 Q2 through 2026 Q2, and that is exactly what this model uses. The Form 10 and the first 10-K also carry COMBINED CARVE-OUT financials for the pre-spin years. Those are filed figures, but they are a different basis - allocated corporate cost, no standalone capital structure, no standalone tax - and they are deliberately NOT spliced on here. Our stored revenue series already starts at 2024 Q2 for the same reason, so the model page and the stock page sit on one basis end to end. A nine-quarter history is the correct answer for a two-year-old company; it has not been padded. SEGMENT REALIGNMENT. Effective 1 January 2026 GE Vernova moved certain business units between segments and recast 2025. Every quarter here is recorded AS FIRST REPORTED, one consistent rule applied to nine separate SEC-filed Exhibit 99.1 documents. The effect is measurable where both bases are visible and it is small: 2025 Q1 Power moves $4,423m to $4,449m and Electrification $1,879m to $1,840m; 2025 Q2 Power $4,758m to $4,785m and Electrification $2,201m to $2,162m. Wind is unchanged, consolidated revenue is unchanged, and the largest effect is 2.1% of the smaller segment. No recast exists for the 2024 quarters, so no alternative gives a single underlying basis across the whole series. The basis quarter, all guidance and the entire projection sit on the post-realignment basis. There was no realignment between 2024 and 2025: the 2025 releases reproduce the 2024 figures exactly as first filed. WHAT IS DISCLOSED AND WHAT IS NOT. All 27 segment revenue points are reported figures read from each quarter's own filing. The gas volume path is disclosed too - 20 GW of annual output in 2026, 24 GW in 2028, 30 GW in 2030 - as are the 2026 consolidated and per-segment guidance and the 22%/22%/6% segment margins in the 2028 outlook. The eliminations line is the only DERIVED history, marked estimated on every point: it is reported consolidated revenue minus the three reported segments, and it exists because GE Vernova reports segment revenue including intersegment sales. Everything forward-looking - price drift, margin glides, capex intensity, the 25% tax rate and the exit multiple - is assumed and labelled as such in the controls. WHAT IS NOT SPLIT. Power is not divided into gas equipment, gas services and nuclear, and Electrification is not divided into its product lines. The company discusses all of them in prose and even gives turbine unit counts, but publishes no quarterly revenue for any of them. Splitting on prose would invent history. ONE DELIBERATE DIVERGENCE FROM GUIDANCE. Management guides 2026 Wind segment EBITDA losses of about $400m; this model produces about $(0.8)bn. The guide implies a swing from the basis quarter's (13.6)% margin to roughly +5.5% in two quarters, which a monotone margin glide can only reproduce at a rate that would then overstate Wind for the rest of the horizon. The model is more conservative than management here, by roughly 0.8% of company revenue, and says so rather than tuning it away. NO CONSENSUS IS USED. GE Vernova publishes no adjusted EPS, so its GAAP diluted EPS cannot be compared with the analyst-adjusted consensus carried by data vendors. The gap is obvious one quarter back: for 2026 Q1 the vendor's own reported figure is $1.98 against an actual GAAP $17.44, because GAAP that quarter carried $4.5bn of Prolec GE M&A gains. Pairing those series would invent a surprise, so no consensus figure appears anywhere in this model.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.