← GEV forward model

GEV · Forward model · Electrification · Bull case

What has to happen in Electrification

Model as of

This page changes Electrification inside the complete GEV model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GEV forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $1,049.79 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $6.75B 33% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $15.72B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The order book keeps compounding, the ramp is pulled forward, Power and Electrification reach their 22% margins on schedule and the multiple holds at 22x. The evidence is the rate of change: gas equipment under contract went from 100 GW to 116 GW in a single quarter, the year-end 2026 target was raised from 110 GW to 125 GW in three months, and Electrification data-centre orders passed $5bn in the first half, more than double all of 2025. Fair value $1,049.79, 16.8% above the traded price - this is the only case in the model that justifies the current price, and it needs both the growth and the multiple.

Electrification

Basis quarter$3.64B
Final quarter$6.75B
Implied CAGR+13%
Final revenue mix33%

Grid equipment - transformers, switchgear, HVDC and substation solutions - plus power conversion and storage, now including all of Prolec GE. Demand runs far ahead of delivery: a book-to-bill of about 1.7 in the basis quarter and equipment backlog up 69% year over year, with data centres the fastest-growing end market.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.60B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.96B Reported
2026 Q1 $2.96B Reported
2026 Q2 $3.64B Reported
Power TransmissionGrid Systems IntegrationPower Conversion & StorageProlec GE
Sequential growth +1.5%/qtr decaying toward +3.0% Deseasonalised trend that lands 2026 revenue on $14.75bn, the midpoint of guidance.
Electrification

Latest: $6.75B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q2 $1.79B
2024Q3 $1.93B
2024Q4 $2.18B
2025Q1 $1.88B
2025Q2 $2.20B
2025Q3 $2.60B
2025Q4 $2.96B
2026Q1 $2.96B
2026Q2 $3.64B
2026Q3E $3.99B
2026Q4E $4.26B
2027Q1E $3.62B
2027Q2E $4.01B
2027Q3E $4.43B
2027Q4E $4.74B
2028Q1E $4.05B
2028Q2E $4.51B
2028Q3E $4.99B
2028Q4E $5.36B
2029Q1E $4.59B
2029Q2E $5.12B
2029Q3E $5.68B
2029Q4E $6.12B
2030Q1E $5.25B
2030Q2E $5.86B
2030Q3E $6.52B
2030Q4E $7.03B
2031Q1E $6.03B
2031Q2E $6.75B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Prolec GE moved from a 50%-owned equity-method holding to full consolidation when GE Vernova bought the remaining half, completing on 2 February 2026. It is inside the 2026 Q1 and 2026 Q2 actuals and inside the guided $14.5-15.0bn range, so the basis level and the guidance agree and the acquisition must not be added again on top.
  • This is why reported and organic growth diverge so widely: Electrification revenue rose 68% on a GAAP basis in the basis quarter but 29% organically. The model is anchored on the guided GAAP dollar range rather than on an organic rate, so the projection should be read against dollars, not against the organic figure.
  • The Q1 seasonal factor is the least reliable number in this vertical. Prolec consolidated during 2026 Q1 and mechanically lifted that quarter, so the 2026 sequential read contradicts the 2025 one. The factor rests on the 2025 observation and the true Q1 trough is probably shallower than the one shown.
GEV model map

Explore another vertical