GEV · Forward model · Electrification
What has to happen in Electrification
Model as of
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Electrification
Basis quarter$3.64B
Final quarter$5.75B
Implied CAGR+10%
Final revenue mix33%
Grid equipment - transformers, switchgear, HVDC and substation solutions - plus power conversion and storage, now including all of Prolec GE. Demand runs far ahead of delivery: a book-to-bill of about 1.7 in the basis quarter and equipment backlog up 69% year over year, with data centres the fastest-growing end market.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$2.60B
Reported
2025 Q4
$2.96B
Reported
2026 Q1
$2.96B
Reported
2026 Q2
$3.64B
Reported
Power TransmissionGrid Systems IntegrationPower Conversion & StorageProlec GE
Sequential growth
+1.5%/qtr
decaying toward +3.0%
Deseasonalised trend that lands 2026 revenue on $14.75bn, the midpoint of guidance.
Electrification
Latest: $5.75B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q2 | $1.79B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.93B |
| 2024Q4 | $2.18B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.88B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.20B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.60B |
| 2025Q4 | $2.96B |
| 2026Q1 | $2.96B |
| 2026Q2 | $3.64B |
| 2026Q3E | $3.96B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.19B |
| 2027Q1E | $3.53B |
| 2027Q2E | $3.89B |
| 2027Q3E | $4.26B |
| 2027Q4E | $4.52B |
| 2028Q1E | $3.83B |
| 2028Q2E | $4.23B |
| 2028Q3E | $4.65B |
| 2028Q4E | $4.95B |
| 2029Q1E | $4.21B |
| 2029Q2E | $4.65B |
| 2029Q3E | $5.12B |
| 2029Q4E | $5.47B |
| 2030Q1E | $4.66B |
| 2030Q2E | $5.16B |
| 2030Q3E | $5.69B |
| 2030Q4E | $6.09B |
| 2031Q1E | $5.19B |
| 2031Q2E | $5.75B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Prolec GE moved from a 50%-owned equity-method holding to full consolidation when GE Vernova bought the remaining half, completing on 2 February 2026. It is inside the 2026 Q1 and 2026 Q2 actuals and inside the guided $14.5-15.0bn range, so the basis level and the guidance agree and the acquisition must not be added again on top.
- This is why reported and organic growth diverge so widely: Electrification revenue rose 68% on a GAAP basis in the basis quarter but 29% organically. The model is anchored on the guided GAAP dollar range rather than on an organic rate, so the projection should be read against dollars, not against the organic figure.
- The Q1 seasonal factor is the least reliable number in this vertical. Prolec consolidated during 2026 Q1 and mechanically lifted that quarter, so the 2026 sequential read contradicts the 2025 one. The factor rests on the 2025 observation and the true Q1 trough is probably shallower than the one shown.