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CVX · Forward model · U.S. Downstream · Kilby case

What has to happen in U.S. Downstream

Model as of

This page changes U.S. Downstream inside the complete CVX model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

CVX forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $186.49 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $19.92B 36% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $24.86B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Project Kilby is a 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft for about 2.67 gigawatts of behind-the-meter capacity in West Texas, at returns management described as mid-teens, with a final investment decision expected later this year. It is pre-FID, with no disclosed capital cost, no first-power date and no revenue in any filing, so this case adds no revenue to any vertical. What it changes is the exit multiple: 7.6x instead of 7.0x, a re-rating for a major that also sells power to the AI buildout. It does not add a barrel, a dollar of EBITDA before 2031, or any evidence that FID happens.

Related research
News · Distillate Cracks Tripled to $106 a Barrel While Crude Fell. Our Refining Models Assume the Reverse. Gulf Coast distillate cracks went from $30 a barrel in 3Q25 to $106 on 9 September while WTI fell. Chevron's and Exxon's model prices drift down from here.

U.S. Downstream

Basis quarter$25.20B
Final quarter$19.92B
Implied CAGR−5%
Final revenue mix36%

Five U.S. refineries that ran a record 1,070 MBD of crude unit inputs at more than 97% utilisation in the basis quarter, plus marketing, lubricants and CPChem equity income. Throughput is disclosed and is close to its ceiling, so this line is a price and margin story with almost no volume headroom left.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $16.84B Reported
2025 Q4 $15.17B Estimated
2026 Q1 $16.58B Reported
2026 Q2 $25.20B Reported
Refined product salesMarketing and lubricantsCPChem equity income
Units 97370000/qtr growing +0.3% per quarter 97.4M bbl of crude unit input in 2026 Q2: the record 1,070 MBD across 91 days.
Price per unit $247 drifting −7.5% per quarter $247.41 per input barrel: the $258.79 print deseasonalised by the 1.046 factor the engine reapplies.
U.S. Downstream

Latest: $19.92B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $17.89B
2024Q2 $19.23B
2024Q3 $18.18B
2024Q4 $16.74B
2025Q1 $17.02B
2025Q2 $16.89B
2025Q3 $16.84B
2025Q4 $15.17B
2026Q1 $16.58B
2026Q2 $25.20B
2026Q3E $22.72B
2026Q4E $19.60B
2027Q1E $20.64B
2027Q2E $20.72B
2027Q3E $19.73B
2027Q4E $17.71B
2028Q1E $19.21B
2028Q2E $19.71B
2028Q3E $19.08B
2028Q4E $17.33B
2029Q1E $18.97B
2029Q2E $19.60B
2029Q3E $19.05B
2029Q4E $17.37B
2030Q1E $19.06B
2030Q2E $19.73B
2030Q3E $19.21B
2030Q4E $17.53B
2031Q1E $19.25B
2031Q2E $19.92B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This is the only Chevron line whose quarterly shape repeats inside a tight band, so it is the only one carrying seasonal factors: 1.013, 1.046, 1.016, 0.925 on calendar quarters, with a Q4 that sits 7-8% below the annual mean in every window available.
  • Because the unit driver ignores the basis level the engine deseasonalises, the price input is stated deseasonalised: $247.41 is the $258.79 print divided by the 1.046 second-quarter factor the engine then reapplies quarter by quarter.
  • The volume ceiling of 100.4M barrels a quarter is 1,103 MBD of implied nameplate, derived from 1,070 MBD at more than 97% utilisation. The path reaches it and stops, which is the honest shape of a refining system with no headroom.
  • The basis EBITDA margin of 21.5% is the 13.1% derived from the segment column plus the $2,114M of U.S. Upstream EBITDA that a 100% cap cannot hold. It glides to the 6% terminal the brief supports, so the credit unwinds as the transfer artefact does.
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