CVX · Forward model · International Upstream · Bull case
What has to happen in International Upstream
Model as of
This page changes International Upstream inside the complete CVX model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
Shares this vertical and portfolio case. Slider and horizon edits stay in your browser.
International Upstream
Basis quarter$13.54B
Final quarter$12.76B
Implied CAGR−1%
Final revenue mix20%
Tengiz, Guyana's Stabroek block through legacy Hess, Australian LNG, West Africa, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Partitioned Zone. Volume is disclosed quarterly, and the revenue line also carries large equity-affiliate income - $1,303M from TCO and others in the basis quarter - that a pure wellhead price times volume driver would miss entirely.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$10.36B
Reported
2025 Q4
$9.94B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$7.84B
Reported
2026 Q2
$13.54B
Reported
Crude oil and NGL liftingsLNG and pipeline gasEquity affiliate income (TCO and others)
Units
181363000/qtr
growing +0.6% per quarter
181.4M boe in 2026 Q2: 1,993 MBOED across 91 days, with Partitioned Zone curtailment already in it.
Price per unit
$75
drifting −8.5% per quarter
$74.63 per boe on a $104 Brent quarter, TCO equity income included; assumed to revert toward $55.
International Upstream
Latest: $12.76B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $9.30B |
| 2024Q2 | $8.34B |
| 2024Q3 | $9.67B |
| 2024Q4 | $12.00B |
| 2025Q1 | $8.95B |
| 2025Q2 | $7.30B |
| 2025Q3 | $10.36B |
| 2025Q4 | $9.94B |
| 2026Q1 | $7.84B |
| 2026Q2 | $13.54B |
| 2026Q3E | $12.55B |
| 2026Q4E | $11.91B |
| 2027Q1E | $11.50B |
| 2027Q2E | $11.24B |
| 2027Q3E | $11.10B |
| 2027Q4E | $11.03B |
| 2028Q1E | $11.03B |
| 2028Q2E | $11.06B |
| 2028Q3E | $11.13B |
| 2028Q4E | $11.22B |
| 2029Q1E | $11.33B |
| 2029Q2E | $11.46B |
| 2029Q3E | $11.60B |
| 2029Q4E | $11.74B |
| 2030Q1E | $11.90B |
| 2030Q2E | $12.06B |
| 2030Q3E | $12.23B |
| 2030Q4E | $12.40B |
| 2031Q1E | $12.58B |
| 2031Q2E | $12.76B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Partitioned Zone volumes were curtailed in the basis quarter by the Middle East conflict, so the 1,993 MBOED starting point is a constrained number rather than a capacity number.
- The $74.63 per boe basis price sits far above the $47-60 range of the eight preceding quarters because Brent averaged $104. The driver glides it back to about $55 by 2031, which is an assumed mid-cycle level, not a disclosed forecast.
- The Iraq heads of agreement covering West Qurna 2 and Nasiriyah is pre-FID and carries no modelled volume, and no Venezuela barrel is added because those volumes are outside reported production.