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COIN · Forward model · Corporate interest and other income · Bull case

What has to happen in Corporate interest and other income

Model as of

This page changes Corporate interest and other income inside the complete COIN model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

COIN forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $173.65 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $91M 4% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.21B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Share gains compound into a recovering tape while the cost reset holds, so operating leverage returns faster than revenue does. The six points of margin here are about a third of the nineteen-point gap between the 65.3% of revenue this model spends on overhead and the 46% the company own cost plan implies at a recovered revenue base. What this case does not reach is the December 2024 peak revenue of $2,272M in a quarter, and it does not assume US perpetuals or unified Deribit liquidity are live and monetised.

Corporate interest and other income

Basis quarter$66M
Final quarter$91M
Implied CAGR+7%
Final revenue mix4%

Interest on Coinbase own treasury: money market funds, short-duration Treasuries, bank cash and its own USDC balances. It sits outside net revenue in Coinbase presentation but inside total revenue, so the model must carry it. The base is the corporate cash balance and the price is the yield on it.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $106M Estimated
2025 Q4 $104M Estimated
2026 Q1 $74M Estimated
2026 Q2 $66M Estimated
Interest on corporate cash and TreasuriesReserve income on corporate USDC balances
Subscribers 8.6M 77.6% of a 11.1M addressable base $8.61B of cash and cash equivalents at 30 June 2026, counted in thousands of dollars.
Addressable subscribers 11.1M the S-curve ceiling The $11.1B of available resources the deck names: cash, marketable, crypto and strategic investments.
Net adds 0/qtr ramping toward 0/qtr, throttled as the base approaches the TAM
Net-add ceiling 0/qtr what supply can deliver at full rate
ARPU $2.54/mo drifting −1.0% per quarter, floor $2.17 Monthly interest per $1,000 of corporate cash: the derived 3.05% annualised yield.
Non-subscriber revenue $0/qtr growing 0.0% per quarter Zero: there is nothing in this line but interest on the treasury.
Corporate interest and other income

Latest: $91M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $97M
2025Q2 $101M
2025Q3 $106M
2025Q4 $104M
2026Q1 $74M
2026Q2 $66M
2026Q3E $65M
2026Q4E $65M
2027Q1E $66M
2027Q2E $66M
2027Q3E $67M
2027Q4E $68M
2028Q1E $69M
2028Q2E $70M
2028Q3E $71M
2028Q4E $73M
2029Q1E $74M
2029Q2E $75M
2029Q3E $77M
2029Q4E $78M
2030Q1E $80M
2030Q2E $81M
2030Q3E $84M
2030Q4E $86M
2031Q1E $89M
2031Q2E $91M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • A subscriber here is $1,000 of corporate cash and ARPU is the monthly interest it earns: 8,614,065 of them at $2.54 a month is the filed $8,614,065K balance at a derived 3.05% annualised yield.
  • The addressable base is the $11.1B of available resources the deck describes: cash and equivalents plus $174,778K of marketable investments, $1,468,395K of crypto assets held for investment and $840,287K of strategic investments. Treasury is 77.6% of it today and glides toward 70% as buybacks and debt repayment draw it down.
  • Every quarter of this line is derived as total revenue less transaction revenue less subscription and services revenue on the current basis, because revenue on Coinbase own USDC balances was reclassified into it from stablecoin revenue beginning with the Q1 2026 10-Q. That reclassification is the single largest basis trap in this ticker history.
  • This is a treasury outcome rather than an operating result and should not be read as business quality: it falls with rates and with any large buyback or debt repayment.
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