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COIN · Forward model · Other transaction · Bull case

What has to happen in Other transaction

Model as of

This page changes Other transaction inside the complete COIN model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

COIN forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $173.65 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $69M 3% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $702M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Share gains compound into a recovering tape while the cost reset holds, so operating leverage returns faster than revenue does. The six points of margin here are about a third of the nineteen-point gap between the 65.3% of revenue this model spends on overhead and the 46% the company own cost plan implies at a recovered revenue base. What this case does not reach is the December 2024 peak revenue of $2,272M in a quarter, and it does not assume US perpetuals or unified Deribit liquidity are live and monetised.

Other transaction

Basis quarter$47M
Final quarter$69M
Implied CAGR+8%
Final revenue mix3%

Base network revenue, Coinbase Wallet and other transaction fees. Coinbase publishes no volume or fee metric for this line, so sequential growth on the filed total is the only honest driver.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $68M Reported
2025 Q4 $64M Estimated
2026 Q1 $53M Reported
2026 Q2 $47M Reported
Base layer-2 sequencer revenueCoinbase Wallet and other transaction fees
Sequential growth −6.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% Down 11% in Q2 on lower Base revenue; a smaller decline as onchain activity stabilises.
Other transaction

Latest: $69M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $68M
2025Q2 $54M
2025Q3 $68M
2025Q4 $64M
2026Q1 $53M
2026Q2 $47M
2026Q3E $46M
2026Q4E $45M
2027Q1E $44M
2027Q2E $44M
2027Q3E $44M
2027Q4E $44M
2028Q1E $45M
2028Q2E $46M
2028Q3E $47M
2028Q4E $48M
2029Q1E $49M
2029Q2E $51M
2029Q3E $53M
2029Q4E $55M
2030Q1E $57M
2030Q2E $59M
2030Q3E $61M
2030Q4E $64M
2031Q1E $66M
2031Q2E $69M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The deck attributes the 11% sequential decline in 2026 Q2 largely to lower Base revenue. Base sequencer economics are policy rather than contract, and Coinbase has repeatedly cut Base fees.
  • Base carried more than 99% of agentic stablecoin transaction volume in 2026 Q2 and none of that throughput is monetised in proportion to its scale, so this line is deliberately the smallest in the model.
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