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COIN · Forward model · Institutional transaction · Bull case

What has to happen in Institutional transaction

Model as of

This page changes Institutional transaction inside the complete COIN model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

COIN forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $173.65 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $207M 9% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.82B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Share gains compound into a recovering tape while the cost reset holds, so operating leverage returns faster than revenue does. The six points of margin here are about a third of the nineteen-point gap between the 65.3% of revenue this model spends on overhead and the 46% the company own cost plan implies at a recovered revenue base. What this case does not reach is the December 2024 peak revenue of $2,272M in a quarter, and it does not assume US perpetuals or unified Deribit liquidity are live and monetised.

Institutional transaction

Basis quarter$100M
Final quarter$207M
Implied CAGR+16%
Final revenue mix9%

Exchange and Prime flow from funds, market makers and corporates, plus Deribit-led crypto derivatives. Revenue is institutional volume times a very thin take rate. Deribit consolidated from 2025 Q3, which is why the rate on spot volume roughly tripled between 2025 Q2 and 2025 Q4.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $135M Reported
2025 Q4 $185M Estimated
2026 Q1 $136M Reported
2026 Q2 $100M Reported
Coinbase Exchange and Prime spot feesCrypto derivatives (Deribit, international perpetuals)Equity and pre-IPO perpetuals
Units 120600/qtr growing −3.0% per quarter $120.6B of institutional spot volume in 2026 Q2, in $M. Disclosed in the deck Select Operating Metrics.
Price per unit $830 drifting +0.1% per quarter Revenue per $M of spot volume: the derived 0.08298% post-Deribit blended rate.
Institutional transaction

Latest: $207M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $99M
2025Q2 $61M
2025Q3 $135M
2025Q4 $185M
2026Q1 $136M
2026Q2 $100M
2026Q3E $100M
2026Q4E $100M
2027Q1E $101M
2027Q2E $103M
2027Q3E $106M
2027Q4E $109M
2028Q1E $113M
2028Q2E $117M
2028Q3E $121M
2028Q4E $127M
2029Q1E $132M
2029Q2E $138M
2029Q3E $145M
2029Q4E $152M
2030Q1E $160M
2030Q2E $168M
2030Q3E $177M
2030Q4E $186M
2031Q1E $196M
2031Q2E $207M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • One unit is $1M of institutional spot volume: 120,600 units in 2026 Q2 at $830 of revenue each is the disclosed $120.6B of volume at the derived 0.08298% take rate.
  • The rate is a blend and not a price. Derivatives notional of $1,060.6B is monetised in the same line, so on spot plus derivatives together the take rate is 0.0085%, and a mix shift toward derivatives moves the headline rate without touching revenue.
  • Coinbase crypto trading volume market share reached an all-time high 10.3% in 2026 Q2, a third consecutive gain, while total market crypto spot volume fell 25% sequentially. This model does not assume further share gains.
  • The same six-quarter limit applies as on the consumer line, with the 2025 Q4 moving-average ratio of 1.380 measuring the Deribit consolidation rather than a season, so no seasonality is applied.
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