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BRK-B · Forward model · Service and retailing · Abel's price case

What has to happen in Service and retailing

Model as of

This page changes Service and retailing inside the complete BRK-B model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

BRK-B forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $488.00 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $14.63B 13% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $19.74B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

A reverse DCF onto the CEO's own transaction, not a forecast. Abel bought nothing in April, then 1,458,312 Class B shares at an average $476.01 in May and 7,139,881 at $487.98 in June — $4,527.9M in all — under a programme whose sole condition is that the repurchase price be 'below Berkshire's intrinsic value, as conservatively determined by Berkshire's Chief Executive Officer after consultation with the Chairman of the Board'. That is a disclosed transaction at a disclosed price, and it says intrinsic value exceeded $487.98 in June 2026. This case holds EVERY operating assumption at base — same growth, same margins, same exit multiple — and asks only what cost of equity reproduces $487.98. The answer is 13.65%, and at an 11x exit it is 12.11%. Neither is a rate anybody would defend for a railroad, a regulated utility group and a P&C underwriter, which is the point: on this model's own arithmetic Abel was buying comfortably below fair value rather than at the edge of it. Result: $488.00 a share, -3.1% on the tape.

Service and retailing

Basis quarter$11.88B
Final quarter$14.63B
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix13%

Aviation services at NetJets and FlightSafety, TTI electronic-component distribution, Berkshire Hathaway Automotive and the retailing businesses. $11,884M of revenue and $1,266M of pre-tax earnings in the basis quarter, a 10.65% margin that is the best in the ten-quarter series.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $10.59B Reported
2025 Q4 $11.23B Estimated
2026 Q1 $10.99B Reported
2026 Q2 $11.88B Reported
ServiceRetailingEquipment leasing
Sequential growth +1.6%/qtr decaying toward +0.7% 1.6% a quarter. TTM growth was 8.88%, led by aviation services and electronic-component distribution.
Service and retailing

Latest: $14.63B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2022Q1 $9.12B
2022Q2 $9.62B
2022Q3 $9.57B
2022Q4 $10.00B
2023Q1 $9.93B
2023Q2 $10.14B
2023Q3 $9.95B
2023Q4 $9.98B
2024Q1 $9.70B
2024Q2 $9.95B
2024Q3 $9.84B
2024Q4 $10.38B
2025Q1 $10.14B
2025Q2 $10.69B
2025Q3 $10.59B
2025Q4 $11.23B
2026Q1 $10.99B
2026Q2 $11.88B
2026Q3E $11.81B
2026Q4E $12.32B
2027Q1E $12.13B
2027Q2E $12.59B
2027Q3E $12.47B
2027Q4E $12.97B
2028Q1E $12.73B
2028Q2E $13.18B
2028Q3E $13.02B
2028Q4E $13.52B
2029Q1E $13.25B
2029Q2E $13.70B
2029Q3E $13.52B
2029Q4E $14.02B
2030Q1E $13.73B
2030Q2E $14.17B
2030Q3E $13.98B
2030Q4E $14.49B
2031Q1E $14.18B
2031Q2E $14.63B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • SEASONAL, but only just, and the page should say so. Factors [0.9863, 1.0100, 0.9881, 1.0156], signal 0.0294 against a worst spread of 0.0184 — a 1.6x clear. The entire range is 1.6%, so ASEASONAL would have been equally defensible; the factors are applied for consistency with the mechanical rule rather than because they matter.
  • 10.65% is the highest quarterly margin in the series against 9.71% over the trailing twelve months and 9.57% across ten quarters. Terminal is set to the TTM figure, so the margin glides down.
  • Segment earnings before income taxes are struck after this segment's OWN interest expense. The seven segments' interest lines sum to $1,437M in the basis quarter against $1,335M of CONSOLIDATED interest expense, so every dollar of Berkshire's interest cost is already charged inside a vertical margin. That is why no debt is netted in spec.netCash: subtracting the $128,599M of borrowings as well would take the same cost twice.
  • Berkshire files no fourth-quarter report. Every Q4 point here is the annual figure less the nine-month figure from that year's third-quarter 10-Q and is flagged estimated for that reason; Q1, Q2 and Q3 are read directly from the filed segment notes and are not.
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