BRK-B · Forward model · Service and retailing · Bull case
What has to happen in Service and retailing
Model as of
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Service and retailing
Basis quarter$11.88B
Final quarter$15.85B
Implied CAGR+6%
Final revenue mix13%
Aviation services at NetJets and FlightSafety, TTI electronic-component distribution, Berkshire Hathaway Automotive and the retailing businesses. $11,884M of revenue and $1,266M of pre-tax earnings in the basis quarter, a 10.65% margin that is the best in the ten-quarter series.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$10.59B
Reported
2025 Q4
$11.23B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$10.99B
Reported
2026 Q2
$11.88B
Reported
ServiceRetailingEquipment leasing
Sequential growth
+1.6%/qtr
decaying toward +0.7%
1.6% a quarter. TTM growth was 8.88%, led by aviation services and electronic-component distribution.
Service and retailing
Latest: $15.85B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2022Q1 | $9.12B |
| 2022Q2 | $9.62B |
| 2022Q3 | $9.57B |
| 2022Q4 | $10.00B |
| 2023Q1 | $9.93B |
| 2023Q2 | $10.14B |
| 2023Q3 | $9.95B |
| 2023Q4 | $9.98B |
| 2024Q1 | $9.70B |
| 2024Q2 | $9.95B |
| 2024Q3 | $9.84B |
| 2024Q4 | $10.38B |
| 2025Q1 | $10.14B |
| 2025Q2 | $10.69B |
| 2025Q3 | $10.59B |
| 2025Q4 | $11.23B |
| 2026Q1 | $10.99B |
| 2026Q2 | $11.88B |
| 2026Q3E | $11.86B |
| 2026Q4E | $12.42B |
| 2027Q1E | $12.28B |
| 2027Q2E | $12.79B |
| 2027Q3E | $12.72B |
| 2027Q4E | $13.28B |
| 2028Q1E | $13.09B |
| 2028Q2E | $13.61B |
| 2028Q3E | $13.50B |
| 2028Q4E | $14.07B |
| 2029Q1E | $13.85B |
| 2029Q2E | $14.37B |
| 2029Q3E | $14.24B |
| 2029Q4E | $14.82B |
| 2030Q1E | $14.58B |
| 2030Q2E | $15.11B |
| 2030Q3E | $14.96B |
| 2030Q4E | $15.56B |
| 2031Q1E | $15.30B |
| 2031Q2E | $15.85B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- SEASONAL, but only just, and the page should say so. Factors [0.9863, 1.0100, 0.9881, 1.0156], signal 0.0294 against a worst spread of 0.0184 — a 1.6x clear. The entire range is 1.6%, so ASEASONAL would have been equally defensible; the factors are applied for consistency with the mechanical rule rather than because they matter.
- 10.65% is the highest quarterly margin in the series against 9.71% over the trailing twelve months and 9.57% across ten quarters. Terminal is set to the TTM figure, so the margin glides down.
- Segment earnings before income taxes are struck after this segment's OWN interest expense. The seven segments' interest lines sum to $1,437M in the basis quarter against $1,335M of CONSOLIDATED interest expense, so every dollar of Berkshire's interest cost is already charged inside a vertical margin. That is why no debt is netted in spec.netCash: subtracting the $128,599M of borrowings as well would take the same cost twice.
- Berkshire files no fourth-quarter report. Every Q4 point here is the annual figure less the nine-month figure from that year's third-quarter 10-Q and is flagged estimated for that reason; Q1, Q2 and Q3 are read directly from the filed segment notes and are not.