BRK-B · Forward model · McLane · Abel's price case
What has to happen in McLane
Model as of
This page changes McLane inside the complete BRK-B model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
Shares this vertical and portfolio case. Slider and horizon edits stay in your browser.
McLane
Basis quarter$12.12B
Final quarter$12.29B
Implied CAGR0%
Final revenue mix11%
Wholesale grocery, convenience-store and foodservice distribution. $12,118M of revenue and $173M of pre-tax earnings in the basis quarter: a 1.43% margin on roughly $50 billion of annual revenue, the largest revenue line in the company and one of the smallest earnings lines. Revenue here is a pass-through of tobacco and grocery cost, so growth is nearly worthless to the valuation and decline is nearly harmless.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$13.19B
Reported
2025 Q4
$13.03B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$11.94B
Reported
2026 Q2
$12.12B
Reported
Grocery distributionConvenience distributionFoodservice distribution
Sequential growth
−0.3%/qtr
decaying toward +0.3%
-0.3% a quarter. Revenue is in genuine decline: -2.85% year on year on a trailing-twelve-month basis.
McLane
Latest: $12.29B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2022Q1 | $12.52B |
| 2022Q2 | $13.26B |
| 2022Q3 | $13.57B |
| 2022Q4 | $13.86B |
| 2023Q1 | $13.06B |
| 2023Q2 | $12.88B |
| 2023Q3 | $13.48B |
| 2023Q4 | $13.19B |
| 2024Q1 | $12.47B |
| 2024Q2 | $12.46B |
| 2024Q3 | $12.72B |
| 2024Q4 | $14.25B |
| 2025Q1 | $12.18B |
| 2025Q2 | $12.60B |
| 2025Q3 | $13.19B |
| 2025Q4 | $13.03B |
| 2026Q1 | $11.94B |
| 2026Q2 | $12.12B |
| 2026Q3E | $12.08B |
| 2026Q4E | $12.05B |
| 2027Q1E | $12.03B |
| 2027Q2E | $12.02B |
| 2027Q3E | $12.01B |
| 2027Q4E | $12.01B |
| 2028Q1E | $12.01B |
| 2028Q2E | $12.02B |
| 2028Q3E | $12.03B |
| 2028Q4E | $12.04B |
| 2029Q1E | $12.06B |
| 2029Q2E | $12.08B |
| 2029Q3E | $12.10B |
| 2029Q4E | $12.12B |
| 2030Q1E | $12.15B |
| 2030Q2E | $12.17B |
| 2030Q3E | $12.20B |
| 2030Q4E | $12.23B |
| 2031Q1E | $12.26B |
| 2031Q2E | $12.29B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- ASEASONAL by the rule, and it is the closest call in the company. Factors [0.9634, 0.9732, 1.0163, 1.0470] give a signal of 0.0835 against a worst window-to-window spread of 0.0849 — the spread MEETS the signal, so no factors are applied. A fourth-quarter tilt is visible but it is not distinguishable from year-to-year noise.
- 1.43% basis quarter against 1.27% over the trailing twelve months and 1.28% across ten quarters. Terminal is set at the TTM figure. On $12 billion of quarterly revenue, 16bp of margin is $19M — this vertical cannot move the answer.
- Segment earnings before income taxes are struck after this segment's OWN interest expense. The seven segments' interest lines sum to $1,437M in the basis quarter against $1,335M of CONSOLIDATED interest expense, so every dollar of Berkshire's interest cost is already charged inside a vertical margin. That is why no debt is netted in spec.netCash: subtracting the $128,599M of borrowings as well would take the same cost twice.
- Berkshire files no fourth-quarter report. Every Q4 point here is the annual figure less the nine-month figure from that year's third-quarter 10-Q and is flagged estimated for that reason; Q1, Q2 and Q3 are read directly from the filed segment notes and are not.