BRK-B · Forward model · BNSF Railway · Abel's price case
What has to happen in BNSF Railway
Model as of
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BNSF Railway
Basis quarter$6.60B
Final quarter$7.67B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix7%
Freight rail revenue on volume and rate against compensation, fuel, depreciation and BNSF's own interest expense. $6,601M of revenue and $2,061M of pre-tax earnings in the basis quarter, a 31.22% margin. Because segment earnings are struck after BNSF's interest, this is already an equity-level stream rather than an EBIT one, which is what lets the whole model be discounted at a cost of equity.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$6.04B
Reported
2025 Q4
$6.00B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$5.99B
Reported
2026 Q2
$6.60B
Reported
Freight rail transportation revenuesOther rail revenues
Sequential growth
+1.0%/qtr
decaying toward +0.6%
1.0% a quarter. Trailing-twelve-month revenue growth was 4.42% on volume and improved operating efficiency.
BNSF Railway
Latest: $7.67B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2022Q1 | $5.97B |
| 2022Q2 | $6.64B |
| 2022Q3 | $6.69B |
| 2022Q4 | $6.59B |
| 2023Q1 | $6.02B |
| 2023Q2 | $5.83B |
| 2023Q3 | $5.85B |
| 2023Q4 | $6.18B |
| 2024Q1 | $5.66B |
| 2024Q2 | $5.80B |
| 2024Q3 | $5.94B |
| 2024Q4 | $6.17B |
| 2025Q1 | $5.72B |
| 2025Q2 | $5.77B |
| 2025Q3 | $6.04B |
| 2025Q4 | $6.00B |
| 2026Q1 | $5.99B |
| 2026Q2 | $6.60B |
| 2026Q3E | $6.67B |
| 2026Q4E | $6.73B |
| 2027Q1E | $6.79B |
| 2027Q2E | $6.85B |
| 2027Q3E | $6.91B |
| 2027Q4E | $6.96B |
| 2028Q1E | $7.02B |
| 2028Q2E | $7.07B |
| 2028Q3E | $7.13B |
| 2028Q4E | $7.18B |
| 2029Q1E | $7.23B |
| 2029Q2E | $7.28B |
| 2029Q3E | $7.33B |
| 2029Q4E | $7.38B |
| 2030Q1E | $7.43B |
| 2030Q2E | $7.48B |
| 2030Q3E | $7.53B |
| 2030Q4E | $7.57B |
| 2031Q1E | $7.62B |
| 2031Q2E | $7.67B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- 31.22% in the basis quarter, 31.02% over the trailing twelve months, 29.65% across all ten quarters of ASU 2023-07 history: the most stable margin in the company, which is why terminal sits within 20bp of the basis quarter.
- The quarter was helped by volume and operating efficiency and hurt by fuel, which rose from $698M to $1,173M year on year. Neither is extrapolated: the growth rate is set below the trailing 4.42% and the margin is held flat.
- Left ASEASONAL by the mechanical rule and it was close. Ratio-to-centred-four-quarter-moving-average factors are [0.9712, 0.9800, 1.0152, 1.0335] with a signal of 0.0623 against a worst window-to-window spread of 0.0604 — the signal clears the spread by 1.03x, a tie inside estimation noise, so no factors are applied.
- Segment earnings before income taxes are struck after this segment's OWN interest expense. The seven segments' interest lines sum to $1,437M in the basis quarter against $1,335M of CONSOLIDATED interest expense, so every dollar of Berkshire's interest cost is already charged inside a vertical margin. That is why no debt is netted in spec.netCash: subtracting the $128,599M of borrowings as well would take the same cost twice.
- Berkshire files no fourth-quarter report. Every Q4 point here is the annual figure less the nine-month figure from that year's third-quarter 10-Q and is flagged estimated for that reason; Q1, Q2 and Q3 are read directly from the filed segment notes and are not.