BRK-B · Forward model · Pilot Travel Centers · Abel's price case
What has to happen in Pilot Travel Centers
Model as of
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Pilot Travel Centers
Basis quarter$14.93B
Final quarter$15.88B
Implied CAGR+1%
Final revenue mix15%
Travel-centre fuel and merchandise. $14,932M of revenue and $290M of pre-tax earnings in the basis quarter. Revenue here is a diesel price rather than a volume — the line moved from $10,109M to $14,932M year on year while pre-tax earnings moved from $119M to $290M — and pre-tax earnings are the thinnest and least stable in the company: three of the five quarters before this one were loss-making or break-even.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$10.88B
Reported
2025 Q4
$10.78B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$11.24B
Reported
2026 Q2
$14.93B
Reported
FuelNon-fuel merchandise and services
Sequential growth
0.0%/qtr
decaying toward +0.5%
0.0%. TTM revenue is +14.09% but that is the diesel price, not the business; a flat opening rate is the honest one.
Pilot Travel Centers
Latest: $15.88B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2022Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2022Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2022Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2022Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2023Q1 | $9.51B |
| 2023Q2 | $14.75B |
| 2023Q3 | $13.17B |
| 2023Q4 | $14.31B |
| 2024Q1 | $12.50B |
| 2024Q2 | $13.00B |
| 2024Q3 | $10.63B |
| 2024Q4 | $10.76B |
| 2025Q1 | $10.43B |
| 2025Q2 | $10.11B |
| 2025Q3 | $10.88B |
| 2025Q4 | $10.78B |
| 2026Q1 | $11.24B |
| 2026Q2 | $14.93B |
| 2026Q3E | $14.93B |
| 2026Q4E | $14.94B |
| 2027Q1E | $14.96B |
| 2027Q2E | $14.98B |
| 2027Q3E | $15.01B |
| 2027Q4E | $15.05B |
| 2028Q1E | $15.09B |
| 2028Q2E | $15.13B |
| 2028Q3E | $15.18B |
| 2028Q4E | $15.23B |
| 2029Q1E | $15.29B |
| 2029Q2E | $15.34B |
| 2029Q3E | $15.41B |
| 2029Q4E | $15.47B |
| 2030Q1E | $15.53B |
| 2030Q2E | $15.60B |
| 2030Q3E | $15.67B |
| 2030Q4E | $15.74B |
| 2031Q1E | $15.81B |
| 2031Q2E | $15.88B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- 1.94% is the best margin in two years and it follows three straight loss-making or break-even quarters at -0.16%, -0.74% and -0.44%. The trailing-twelve-month margin is 0.30% and the two-year mean is 0.91%. Terminal is set at 1.00%, near the two-year figure — treating the basis quarter as a run rate would be the single most aggressive assumption available anywhere in this model, and it is not made.
- ASEASONAL, decisively. Factors [0.9861, 1.0201, 0.9859, 1.0080] on only ten windows, signal 0.0343 against a spread of 0.1139 — the spread is 3.3x the signal. Whatever pattern is in a travel-centre year is buried under the diesel price.
- HISTORY: the 2022 quarters are explicit ZEROS flagged estimated, because Berkshire did not consolidate Pilot at all until 31 January 2023 — it held a 38.6% equity-method stake and no Pilot revenue entered consolidated revenue. They are padded rather than omitted so the consolidated history keeps its 2022 quarters. The 2023 Q1 figure of $9,508M then covers about TWO months of operations, not three, which is why the step from 2022 Q4 to 2023 Q2 in the rendered consolidated series is an accounting event and not growth.
- Segment earnings before income taxes are struck after this segment's OWN interest expense. The seven segments' interest lines sum to $1,437M in the basis quarter against $1,335M of CONSOLIDATED interest expense, so every dollar of Berkshire's interest cost is already charged inside a vertical margin. That is why no debt is netted in spec.netCash: subtracting the $128,599M of borrowings as well would take the same cost twice.
- Berkshire files no fourth-quarter report. Every Q4 point here is the annual figure less the nine-month figure from that year's third-quarter 10-Q and is flagged estimated for that reason; Q1, Q2 and Q3 are read directly from the filed segment notes and are not.