BRK-B · Forward model · McLane
What has to happen in McLane
Model as of
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McLane
Basis quarter$12.12B
Final quarter$12.29B
Implied CAGR0%
Final revenue mix11%
Wholesale grocery, convenience-store and foodservice distribution. $12,118M of revenue and $173M of pre-tax earnings in the basis quarter: a 1.43% margin on roughly $50 billion of annual revenue, the largest revenue line in the company and one of the smallest earnings lines. Revenue here is a pass-through of tobacco and grocery cost, so growth is nearly worthless to the valuation and decline is nearly harmless.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$13.19B
Reported
2025 Q4
$13.03B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$11.94B
Reported
2026 Q2
$12.12B
Reported
Grocery distributionConvenience distributionFoodservice distribution
Sequential growth
−0.3%/qtr
decaying toward +0.3%
-0.3% a quarter. Revenue is in genuine decline: -2.85% year on year on a trailing-twelve-month basis.
McLane
Latest: $12.29B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2022Q1 | $12.52B |
| 2022Q2 | $13.26B |
| 2022Q3 | $13.57B |
| 2022Q4 | $13.86B |
| 2023Q1 | $13.06B |
| 2023Q2 | $12.88B |
| 2023Q3 | $13.48B |
| 2023Q4 | $13.19B |
| 2024Q1 | $12.47B |
| 2024Q2 | $12.46B |
| 2024Q3 | $12.72B |
| 2024Q4 | $14.25B |
| 2025Q1 | $12.18B |
| 2025Q2 | $12.60B |
| 2025Q3 | $13.19B |
| 2025Q4 | $13.03B |
| 2026Q1 | $11.94B |
| 2026Q2 | $12.12B |
| 2026Q3E | $12.08B |
| 2026Q4E | $12.05B |
| 2027Q1E | $12.03B |
| 2027Q2E | $12.02B |
| 2027Q3E | $12.01B |
| 2027Q4E | $12.01B |
| 2028Q1E | $12.01B |
| 2028Q2E | $12.02B |
| 2028Q3E | $12.03B |
| 2028Q4E | $12.04B |
| 2029Q1E | $12.06B |
| 2029Q2E | $12.08B |
| 2029Q3E | $12.10B |
| 2029Q4E | $12.12B |
| 2030Q1E | $12.15B |
| 2030Q2E | $12.17B |
| 2030Q3E | $12.20B |
| 2030Q4E | $12.23B |
| 2031Q1E | $12.26B |
| 2031Q2E | $12.29B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- ASEASONAL by the rule, and it is the closest call in the company. Factors [0.9634, 0.9732, 1.0163, 1.0470] give a signal of 0.0835 against a worst window-to-window spread of 0.0849 — the spread MEETS the signal, so no factors are applied. A fourth-quarter tilt is visible but it is not distinguishable from year-to-year noise.
- 1.43% basis quarter against 1.27% over the trailing twelve months and 1.28% across ten quarters. Terminal is set at the TTM figure. On $12 billion of quarterly revenue, 16bp of margin is $19M — this vertical cannot move the answer.
- Segment earnings before income taxes are struck after this segment's OWN interest expense. The seven segments' interest lines sum to $1,437M in the basis quarter against $1,335M of CONSOLIDATED interest expense, so every dollar of Berkshire's interest cost is already charged inside a vertical margin. That is why no debt is netted in spec.netCash: subtracting the $128,599M of borrowings as well would take the same cost twice.
- Berkshire files no fourth-quarter report. Every Q4 point here is the annual figure less the nine-month figure from that year's third-quarter 10-Q and is flagged estimated for that reason; Q1, Q2 and Q3 are read directly from the filed segment notes and are not.