BIDU · Forward model · Other Baidu General Business · Bear case
What has to happen in Other Baidu General Business
Model as of
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Other Baidu General Business
Basis quarter$337M
Final quarter$357M
Implied CAGR+1%
Final revenue mix6%
Everything else inside Baidu General Business once the AI table, Legacy and Apollo Go are taken out: intelligent-driving licensing to automakers, Xiaodu devices, maps, and the smaller mobile-ecosystem lines. RMB 2.3B a quarter, down 15% year over year, and mostly a rounding item next to the rest.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$373M
Estimated
2025 Q4
$373M
Estimated
2026 Q1
$313M
Estimated
2026 Q2
$337M
Estimated
Intelligent driving (ANP/HSD) licensed to automakersXiaodu hardware and smart devicesBaidu Maps and other ecosystem services
Sequential growth
+1.5%/qtr
decaying toward +1.5%
1.5% a quarter, about 6% a year, against -15% year over year and +2% sequentially. The mix is assumed to turn as licensing outgrows devices.
Other Baidu General Business
Latest: $357M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $300M |
| 2025Q2 | $384M |
| 2025Q3 | $373M |
| 2025Q4 | $373M |
| 2026Q1 | $313M |
| 2026Q2 | $337M |
| 2026Q3E | $338M |
| 2026Q4E | $339M |
| 2027Q1E | $340M |
| 2027Q2E | $341M |
| 2027Q3E | $342M |
| 2027Q4E | $343M |
| 2028Q1E | $344M |
| 2028Q2E | $345M |
| 2028Q3E | $346M |
| 2028Q4E | $347M |
| 2029Q1E | $348M |
| 2029Q2E | $349M |
| 2029Q3E | $350M |
| 2029Q4E | $351M |
| 2030Q1E | $352M |
| 2030Q2E | $353M |
| 2030Q3E | $354M |
| 2030Q4E | $355M |
| 2031Q1E | $356M |
| 2031Q2E | $357M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- This is a residual: Baidu General Business less the four lines above it and less the Apollo Go estimate. It therefore absorbs the rounding in Baidu's one-decimal-place management table, roughly $10-15M a quarter.
- Down 15% year over year, up 2% sequentially. Modelled at 1.5% a quarter - flat to slightly up, on the view that intelligent-driving licensing grows while devices shrink.
- Low margin. Hardware and licensing at this scale do not carry the software economics of the lines above.