BIDU · Forward model · AI-native Marketing Services · Bear case
What has to happen in AI-native Marketing Services
Model as of
This page changes AI-native Marketing Services inside the complete BIDU model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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AI-native Marketing Services
Basis quarter$383M
Final quarter$447M
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix8%
Advertising sold through AI formats rather than the classic search-results page - the part of the marketing business Baidu counts as reborn rather than declining. It was flat year over year and up 11% sequentially in Q2 2026. It is the bridge line: every dollar it gains is a dollar Legacy does not have to lose.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$413M
Estimated
2025 Q4
$398M
Estimated
2026 Q1
$339M
Estimated
2026 Q2
$383M
Estimated
AI-generated and agent-led ad formatsAI search result monetisationManaged AI campaign tooling for advertisers
Sequential growth
+2.0%/qtr
decaying toward +2.0%
2% a quarter, about 8% a year, against 0% year over year and +11% sequentially. Splitting the difference between the trend and the quarter.
AI-native Marketing Services
Latest: $447M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $251M |
| 2025Q2 | $383M |
| 2025Q3 | $413M |
| 2025Q4 | $398M |
| 2026Q1 | $339M |
| 2026Q2 | $383M |
| 2026Q3E | $386M |
| 2026Q4E | $389M |
| 2027Q1E | $392M |
| 2027Q2E | $395M |
| 2027Q3E | $398M |
| 2027Q4E | $401M |
| 2028Q1E | $404M |
| 2028Q2E | $408M |
| 2028Q3E | $411M |
| 2028Q4E | $414M |
| 2029Q1E | $417M |
| 2029Q2E | $420M |
| 2029Q3E | $424M |
| 2029Q4E | $427M |
| 2030Q1E | $430M |
| 2030Q2E | $434M |
| 2030Q3E | $437M |
| 2030Q4E | $440M |
| 2031Q1E | $444M |
| 2031Q2E | $447M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- This line sits INSIDE Baidu's reported Online Marketing Services revenue. It is separated here because the Core AI-powered cut separates it; do not add it to a figure taken from the reported revenue split or you will count it twice.
- Flat year over year but +11% quarter over quarter, and the reported Online Marketing Services total also rose 4% sequentially - the first sequential increase in the tracked window. Two quarters of that and the advertising bottom is real.
- 2% a quarter, about 8% a year, is a deliberately unheroic number for a line that has not grown year over year. The Bull case is that AI ad formats price better than the blue links they replace; nothing in the disclosures proves that yet.
- Margin is set near the old search business because that is economically what it is - inventory Baidu already owns, sold through a new interface.