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BIDU · Forward model · iQIYI · Bear case

What has to happen in iQIYI

Model as of

This page changes iQIYI inside the complete BIDU model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

BIDU forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $77.78 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $710M 12% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $358M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Q1's RMB 8.8B was the run-rate and Q2's RMB 7.3B is the trend: AI Cloud growth settles in the teens as Alibaba, Tencent and Huawei compete the price of Chinese GPU hours down. Legacy advertising keeps falling at double digits because the loss is share, not substitution. Capex stays high anyway, because stopping it concedes the market. Free cash flow never turns inside the horizon.

iQIYI

Basis quarter$905M
Final quarter$710M
Implied CAGR−5%
Final revenue mix12%

The consolidated streaming business, RMB 6.3B a quarter and falling 5% year over year, with an operating loss that widened to RMB 105M. Baidu does not own all of it and does not appear to want more of it, but it consolidates fully, so it sits in every headline number the market reacts to.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $960M Estimated
2025 Q4 $977M Estimated
2026 Q1 $895M Estimated
2026 Q2 $905M Estimated
Membership subscriptionsOnline advertisingContent distribution and licensing
Sequential growth −0.5%/qtr decaying toward +0.5% -0.5% a quarter against -5% year over year and +1% sequentially. The decline is assumed to be ending, not reversing.
iQIYI

Latest: $710M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $1.03B
2025Q2 $952M
2025Q3 $960M
2025Q4 $977M
2026Q1 $895M
2026Q2 $905M
2026Q3E $890M
2026Q4E $876M
2027Q1E $862M
2027Q2E $849M
2027Q3E $837M
2027Q4E $826M
2028Q1E $815M
2028Q2E $805M
2028Q3E $795M
2028Q4E $786M
2029Q1E $777M
2029Q2E $768M
2029Q3E $760M
2029Q4E $752M
2030Q1E $745M
2030Q2E $737M
2030Q3E $730M
2030Q4E $723M
2031Q1E $717M
2031Q2E $710M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Shown NET of the inter-segment elimination (RMB 145M in Q2 2026) so the seven verticals sum exactly to consolidated revenue. That is why these figures are marked estimated - the elimination is a group-level adjustment, not an iQIYI disclosure.
  • Revenue -5% year over year, +1% sequentially; segment operating loss widened from RMB 46M to RMB 105M and adjusted EBITDA was RMB 11M, essentially break-even.
  • Modelled at -0.5% a quarter easing to +0.5%: a business that stops shrinking without ever really growing. Nothing in the disclosures argues for better.
  • The honest caveat this model does not price: Baidu consolidates 100% of iQIYI's revenue and cash flow but does not own 100% of it. The net cash figure below carries a haircut for that; the revenue here does not.
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