BIDU · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-18

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Two decisions decide how this model reads. First, the segmentation. Baidu publishes TWO overlapping cuts of Baidu General Business revenue - a Core AI-powered table (AI Cloud Infra + AI Applications + AI-native Marketing Services, plus Legacy and Others) and a reported split (Online Marketing Services plus Others). The two are the same revenue counted differently: AI-native Marketing Services sits INSIDE Online Marketing Services, and Legacy Business overlaps it too. Adding both cuts double-counts about RMB 2.6B a quarter. This model uses the Core AI-powered cut, which is additive, so 'Legacy Business' here is the traditional search-and-advertising business net of the AI-native slice already counted above it. Second, the currency. Baidu reports in renminbi and publishes a US dollar convenience translation at each quarter-end rate. Translating each quarter at its own rate puts a currency forecast inside an operating model - it is why Baidu's Q2 revenue reads +1% in dollars and -4% in renminbi. Every figure here is therefore converted at a CONSTANT RMB 6.7851 = US$1.00, the 30 June 2026 rate, so the projection contains no implicit view on the exchange rate. Prior quarters will not tie to the dollar figures Baidu published at the time. Apollo Go is not disclosed as a revenue line by Baidu and is carried here as an explicit estimate, marked as such. iQIYI is shown net of the inter-segment elimination so the verticals sum exactly to consolidated revenue. History runs six quarters, from 2025 Q1, rebuilt from three separate Baidu releases: the Q2 2026 print supplies 2025 Q2 / 2026 Q1 / 2026 Q2, the Q1 2026 print supplies 2025 Q1 and 2025 Q4, and the Q4 2025 print supplies 2025 Q3. One split is an outright estimate - the Q4 2025 release gives 2025 Q3's Core AI-powered components but not the Legacy/Others split beneath them, so Others is interpolated at RMB 2.6B and Legacy takes the residual. Finally, a definitional warning: like every model on this site, free cash flow here is EBITDA less capex less tax, NOT the operating-cash-flow-less-capex figure Baidu reports and this site stores in its series. Baidu's Q2 2026 EBITDA was about $906M against $506M of operating cash flow, so the model's free cash flow runs structurally ahead of the reported one by roughly the working-capital and interest gap. Do not read the model's Rule of 40 against the stock page's.

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.