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What has to happen in Other Baidu General Business

Model as of

This page changes Other Baidu General Business inside the complete BIDU model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

BIDU forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $139.06 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $454M 6% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $155M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

A single-variable case, holding everything else at Base: the +4% sequential move in online marketing this quarter was the bottom, not a bounce. Legacy flattens instead of eroding and AI-native Marketing grows at the pace the AI formats imply. This is the cheapest way for Baidu's total revenue to start growing again - it needs no extra cloud growth and no extra capital at all.

Other Baidu General Business

Basis quarter$337M
Final quarter$454M
Implied CAGR+6%
Final revenue mix6%

Everything else inside Baidu General Business once the AI table, Legacy and Apollo Go are taken out: intelligent-driving licensing to automakers, Xiaodu devices, maps, and the smaller mobile-ecosystem lines. RMB 2.3B a quarter, down 15% year over year, and mostly a rounding item next to the rest.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $373M Estimated
2025 Q4 $373M Estimated
2026 Q1 $313M Estimated
2026 Q2 $337M Estimated
Intelligent driving (ANP/HSD) licensed to automakersXiaodu hardware and smart devicesBaidu Maps and other ecosystem services
Sequential growth +1.5%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 1.5% a quarter, about 6% a year, against -15% year over year and +2% sequentially. The mix is assumed to turn as licensing outgrows devices.
Other Baidu General Business

Latest: $454M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $300M
2025Q2 $384M
2025Q3 $373M
2025Q4 $373M
2026Q1 $313M
2026Q2 $337M
2026Q3E $342M
2026Q4E $347M
2027Q1E $353M
2027Q2E $358M
2027Q3E $363M
2027Q4E $369M
2028Q1E $374M
2028Q2E $380M
2028Q3E $385M
2028Q4E $391M
2029Q1E $397M
2029Q2E $403M
2029Q3E $409M
2029Q4E $415M
2030Q1E $422M
2030Q2E $428M
2030Q3E $434M
2030Q4E $441M
2031Q1E $447M
2031Q2E $454M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This is a residual: Baidu General Business less the four lines above it and less the Apollo Go estimate. It therefore absorbs the rounding in Baidu's one-decimal-place management table, roughly $10-15M a quarter.
  • Down 15% year over year, up 2% sequentially. Modelled at 1.5% a quarter - flat to slightly up, on the view that intelligent-driving licensing grows while devices shrink.
  • Low margin. Hardware and licensing at this scale do not carry the software economics of the lines above.
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