← BIDU forward model

BIDU · Forward model · Other Baidu General Business · Bull case

What has to happen in Other Baidu General Business

Model as of

This page changes Other Baidu General Business inside the complete BIDU model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

BIDU forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $276.71 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $612M 6% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $634M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Chinese enterprise AI demand outruns domestic compute supply, Kunlun silicon carries a genuine cost advantage, and the AI-native ad formats price better than the blue links they replace so the advertising line actually bottoms. Capex is front-loaded rather than permanent, and the market re-rates a business it currently values below its own cash.

Other Baidu General Business

Basis quarter$337M
Final quarter$612M
Implied CAGR+13%
Final revenue mix6%

Everything else inside Baidu General Business once the AI table, Legacy and Apollo Go are taken out: intelligent-driving licensing to automakers, Xiaodu devices, maps, and the smaller mobile-ecosystem lines. RMB 2.3B a quarter, down 15% year over year, and mostly a rounding item next to the rest.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $373M Estimated
2025 Q4 $373M Estimated
2026 Q1 $313M Estimated
2026 Q2 $337M Estimated
Intelligent driving (ANP/HSD) licensed to automakersXiaodu hardware and smart devicesBaidu Maps and other ecosystem services
Sequential growth +1.5%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 1.5% a quarter, about 6% a year, against -15% year over year and +2% sequentially. The mix is assumed to turn as licensing outgrows devices.
Other Baidu General Business

Latest: $612M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $300M
2025Q2 $384M
2025Q3 $373M
2025Q4 $373M
2026Q1 $313M
2026Q2 $337M
2026Q3E $347M
2026Q4E $358M
2027Q1E $369M
2027Q2E $380M
2027Q3E $391M
2027Q4E $403M
2028Q1E $415M
2028Q2E $428M
2028Q3E $441M
2028Q4E $454M
2029Q1E $468M
2029Q2E $482M
2029Q3E $497M
2029Q4E $512M
2030Q1E $527M
2030Q2E $543M
2030Q3E $559M
2030Q4E $576M
2031Q1E $594M
2031Q2E $612M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This is a residual: Baidu General Business less the four lines above it and less the Apollo Go estimate. It therefore absorbs the rounding in Baidu's one-decimal-place management table, roughly $10-15M a quarter.
  • Down 15% year over year, up 2% sequentially. Modelled at 1.5% a quarter - flat to slightly up, on the view that intelligent-driving licensing grows while devices shrink.
  • Low margin. Hardware and licensing at this scale do not carry the software economics of the lines above.
BIDU model map

Explore another vertical