BIDU · Forward model · iQIYI
What has to happen in iQIYI
Model as of
This page changes iQIYI inside the complete BIDU model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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iQIYI
Basis quarter$905M
Final quarter$904M
Implied CAGR0%
Final revenue mix12%
The consolidated streaming business, RMB 6.3B a quarter and falling 5% year over year, with an operating loss that widened to RMB 105M. Baidu does not own all of it and does not appear to want more of it, but it consolidates fully, so it sits in every headline number the market reacts to.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$960M
Estimated
2025 Q4
$977M
Estimated
2026 Q1
$895M
Estimated
2026 Q2
$905M
Estimated
Membership subscriptionsOnline advertisingContent distribution and licensing
Sequential growth
−0.5%/qtr
decaying toward +0.5%
-0.5% a quarter against -5% year over year and +1% sequentially. The decline is assumed to be ending, not reversing.
iQIYI
Latest: $904M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $1.03B |
| 2025Q2 | $952M |
| 2025Q3 | $960M |
| 2025Q4 | $977M |
| 2026Q1 | $895M |
| 2026Q2 | $905M |
| 2026Q3E | $901M |
| 2026Q4E | $897M |
| 2027Q1E | $894M |
| 2027Q2E | $891M |
| 2027Q3E | $889M |
| 2027Q4E | $888M |
| 2028Q1E | $887M |
| 2028Q2E | $887M |
| 2028Q3E | $886M |
| 2028Q4E | $887M |
| 2029Q1E | $887M |
| 2029Q2E | $888M |
| 2029Q3E | $889M |
| 2029Q4E | $891M |
| 2030Q1E | $892M |
| 2030Q2E | $894M |
| 2030Q3E | $896M |
| 2030Q4E | $899M |
| 2031Q1E | $901M |
| 2031Q2E | $904M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Shown NET of the inter-segment elimination (RMB 145M in Q2 2026) so the seven verticals sum exactly to consolidated revenue. That is why these figures are marked estimated - the elimination is a group-level adjustment, not an iQIYI disclosure.
- Revenue -5% year over year, +1% sequentially; segment operating loss widened from RMB 46M to RMB 105M and adjusted EBITDA was RMB 11M, essentially break-even.
- Modelled at -0.5% a quarter easing to +0.5%: a business that stops shrinking without ever really growing. Nothing in the disclosures argues for better.
- The honest caveat this model does not price: Baidu consolidates 100% of iQIYI's revenue and cash flow but does not own 100% of it. The net cash figure below carries a haircut for that; the revenue here does not.