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BIDU · Forward model · iQIYI · Ads bottom case

What has to happen in iQIYI

Model as of

This page changes iQIYI inside the complete BIDU model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

BIDU forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $139.06 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $904M 12% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.11B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

A single-variable case, holding everything else at Base: the +4% sequential move in online marketing this quarter was the bottom, not a bounce. Legacy flattens instead of eroding and AI-native Marketing grows at the pace the AI formats imply. This is the cheapest way for Baidu's total revenue to start growing again - it needs no extra cloud growth and no extra capital at all.

iQIYI

Basis quarter$905M
Final quarter$904M
Implied CAGR0%
Final revenue mix12%

The consolidated streaming business, RMB 6.3B a quarter and falling 5% year over year, with an operating loss that widened to RMB 105M. Baidu does not own all of it and does not appear to want more of it, but it consolidates fully, so it sits in every headline number the market reacts to.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $960M Estimated
2025 Q4 $977M Estimated
2026 Q1 $895M Estimated
2026 Q2 $905M Estimated
Membership subscriptionsOnline advertisingContent distribution and licensing
Sequential growth −0.5%/qtr decaying toward +0.5% -0.5% a quarter against -5% year over year and +1% sequentially. The decline is assumed to be ending, not reversing.
iQIYI

Latest: $904M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $1.03B
2025Q2 $952M
2025Q3 $960M
2025Q4 $977M
2026Q1 $895M
2026Q2 $905M
2026Q3E $901M
2026Q4E $897M
2027Q1E $894M
2027Q2E $891M
2027Q3E $889M
2027Q4E $888M
2028Q1E $887M
2028Q2E $887M
2028Q3E $886M
2028Q4E $887M
2029Q1E $887M
2029Q2E $888M
2029Q3E $889M
2029Q4E $891M
2030Q1E $892M
2030Q2E $894M
2030Q3E $896M
2030Q4E $899M
2031Q1E $901M
2031Q2E $904M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Shown NET of the inter-segment elimination (RMB 145M in Q2 2026) so the seven verticals sum exactly to consolidated revenue. That is why these figures are marked estimated - the elimination is a group-level adjustment, not an iQIYI disclosure.
  • Revenue -5% year over year, +1% sequentially; segment operating loss widened from RMB 46M to RMB 105M and adjusted EBITDA was RMB 11M, essentially break-even.
  • Modelled at -0.5% a quarter easing to +0.5%: a business that stops shrinking without ever really growing. Nothing in the disclosures argues for better.
  • The honest caveat this model does not price: Baidu consolidates 100% of iQIYI's revenue and cash flow but does not own 100% of it. The net cash figure below carries a haircut for that; the revenue here does not.
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