BIDU · Forward model · Bull case
The Bull case, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Two decisions decide how this model reads. First, the segmentation. Baidu publishes TWO overlapping cuts of Baidu General Business revenue - a Core AI-powered table (AI Cloud Infra + AI Applications + AI-native Marketing Services, plus Legacy and Others) and a reported split (Online Marketing Services plus Others). The two are the same revenue counted differently: AI-native Marketing Services sits INSIDE Online Marketing Services, and Legacy Business overlaps it too. Adding both cuts double-counts about RMB 2.6B a quarter. This model uses the Core AI-powered cut, which is additive, so 'Legacy Business' here is the traditional search-and-advertising business net of the AI-native slice already counted above it. Second, the currency. Baidu reports in renminbi and publishes a US dollar convenience translation at each quarter-end rate. Translating each quarter at its own rate puts a currency forecast inside an operating model - it is why Baidu's Q2 revenue reads +1% in dollars and -4% in renminbi. Every figure here is therefore converted at a CONSTANT RMB 6.7851 = US$1.00, the 30 June 2026 rate, so the projection contains no implicit view on the exchange rate. Prior quarters will not tie to the dollar figures Baidu published at the time. Apollo Go is not disclosed as a revenue line by Baidu and is carried here as an explicit estimate, marked as such. iQIYI is shown net of the inter-segment elimination so the verticals sum exactly to consolidated revenue. History runs six quarters, from 2025 Q1, rebuilt from three separate Baidu releases: the Q2 2026 print supplies 2025 Q2 / 2026 Q1 / 2026 Q2, the Q1 2026 print supplies 2025 Q1 and 2025 Q4, and the Q4 2025 print supplies 2025 Q3. One split is an outright estimate - the Q4 2025 release gives 2025 Q3's Core AI-powered components but not the Legacy/Others split beneath them, so Others is interpolated at RMB 2.6B and Legacy takes the residual. Finally, a definitional warning: like every model on this site, free cash flow here is EBITDA less capex less tax, NOT the operating-cash-flow-less-capex figure Baidu reports and this site stores in its series. Baidu's Q2 2026 EBITDA was about $906M against $506M of operating cash flow, so the model's free cash flow runs structurally ahead of the reported one by roughly the working-capital and interest gap. Do not read the model's Rule of 40 against the stock page's.
Shares this page's scenario. Driver and horizon edits stay in your browser — the recipient sees the published model.
Latest: $10.07B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $4.78B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.82B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.59B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.83B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.73B |
| 2026Q2 | $4.62B |
| 2026Q3E | $4.76B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.91B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.08B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.26B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.46B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.66B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.88B |
| 2028Q2E | $6.11B |
| 2028Q3E | $6.35B |
| 2028Q4E | $6.61B |
| 2029Q1E | $6.88B |
| 2029Q2E | $7.16B |
| 2029Q3E | $7.46B |
| 2029Q4E | $7.78B |
| 2030Q1E | $8.11B |
| 2030Q2E | $8.46B |
| 2030Q3E | $8.83B |
| 2030Q4E | $9.22B |
| 2031Q1E | $9.63B |
| 2031Q2E | $10.07B |
From cash flow to fair value
The published model, discounted at 10.5% a year with an exit multiple of 3.0x on revenue. The horizon and sliders above do not change this walk.
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $2.55B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $37.75B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $11.60B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 3.0x |
| Terminal value | $113.26B |
| Discounted at 10.5% a year, terminal value becomes | $68.75B |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 96% |
| Enterprise value | $71.30B |
| Net cash | $24.00B |
| Equity value | $95.30B |
| Shares | 0.34B |
| Fair value per share | $276.71 |
| Against the deployed price of $86.87, as of | +219% |
1.6x terminal revenue, on a terminal year with roughly a 27% EBITDA margin - about 6x terminal EBITDA. That is a mature-large-cap-in-China multiple, and it is deliberately unexciting. The reference point that matters: Baidu's enterprise value TODAY is roughly 0.3x trailing revenue, because the market is netting out a cash pile nearly as large as the market capitalisation. So 1.6x is already a large re-rating - it assumes the market eventually pays for the operating business at all. The discount rate is 12%, above Tesla's 10% and Micron's 11%, for the obvious reasons: a Chinese ADS, a variable-interest structure, and a capital programme currently funded with short-term borrowing. Move the slider: this input and the AI Cloud capex glide together decide most of the answer. At 1x the fair value falls to roughly the current share price; at 3x it roughly doubles it.
Read the other way round: at $86.87 the market is paying 0.1x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.
| Quarter | AI Cloud Infrastructure | AI Applications | AI-native Marketing Services | Legacy Business | Apollo Go (Robotaxi) | Other Baidu General Business | iQIYI | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $1.19B | $385M | $397M | $1.51B | $17M | $347M | $914M | $4.76B | +4% | $1.22B | $1.61B | −$391M | −5 | −$381M |
| 2026 Q4E | $1.31B | $403M | $411M | $1.49B | $19M | $358M | $924M | $4.91B | +2% | $1.28B | $1.61B | −$330M | −5 | −$313M |
| 2027 Q1E | $1.44B | $420M | $425M | $1.47B | $23M | $369M | $935M | $5.08B | +8% | $1.34B | $1.60B | −$263M | +2 | −$244M |
| 2027 Q2E | $1.57B | $439M | $440M | $1.46B | $27M | $380M | $946M | $5.26B | +14% | $1.40B | $1.60B | −$194M | +10 | −$176M |
| 2027 Q3E | $1.71B | $458M | $456M | $1.45B | $31M | $391M | $958M | $5.46B | +15% | $1.47B | $1.60B | −$122M | +12 | −$108M |
| 2027 Q4E | $1.86B | $478M | $472M | $1.44B | $36M | $403M | $971M | $5.66B | +15% | $1.55B | $1.60B | −$48M | +14 | −$42M |
| 2028 Q1E | $2.01B | $499M | $489M | $1.44B | $43M | $415M | $984M | $5.88B | +16% | $1.63B | $1.60B | $21M | +16 | $18M |
| 2028 Q2E | $2.17B | $520M | $506M | $1.44B | $50M | $428M | $999M | $6.11B | +16% | $1.71B | $1.61B | $82M | +17 | $67M |
| 2028 Q3E | $2.34B | $542M | $524M | $1.43B | $58M | $441M | $1.01B | $6.35B | +16% | $1.80B | $1.62B | $142M | +19 | $113M |
| 2028 Q4E | $2.51B | $565M | $542M | $1.43B | $68M | $454M | $1.03B | $6.61B | +17% | $1.89B | $1.64B | $202M | +20 | $157M |
| 2029 Q1E | $2.70B | $589M | $561M | $1.44B | $79M | $468M | $1.05B | $6.88B | +17% | $1.99B | $1.66B | $262M | +21 | $199M |
| 2029 Q2E | $2.89B | $614M | $581M | $1.44B | $92M | $482M | $1.06B | $7.16B | +17% | $2.09B | $1.69B | $321M | +22 | $238M |
| 2029 Q3E | $3.09B | $639M | $602M | $1.44B | $108M | $497M | $1.08B | $7.46B | +17% | $2.20B | $1.73B | $380M | +23 | $275M |
| 2029 Q4E | $3.31B | $666M | $623M | $1.45B | $126M | $512M | $1.10B | $7.78B | +18% | $2.31B | $1.77B | $438M | +23 | $309M |
| 2030 Q1E | $3.53B | $693M | $645M | $1.45B | $146M | $527M | $1.12B | $8.11B | +18% | $2.43B | $1.81B | $495M | +24 | $340M |
| 2030 Q2E | $3.76B | $722M | $668M | $1.46B | $170M | $543M | $1.13B | $8.46B | +18% | $2.56B | $1.87B | $551M | +25 | $370M |
| 2030 Q3E | $4.01B | $752M | $691M | $1.47B | $199M | $559M | $1.15B | $8.83B | +18% | $2.69B | $1.93B | $607M | +25 | $397M |
| 2030 Q4E | $4.26B | $783M | $715M | $1.48B | $231M | $576M | $1.17B | $9.22B | +19% | $2.82B | $2.00B | $662M | +26 | $422M |
| 2031 Q1E | $4.53B | $815M | $741M | $1.49B | $269M | $594M | $1.20B | $9.63B | +19% | $2.97B | $2.07B | $716M | +26 | $446M |
| 2031 Q2E | $4.82B | $849M | $767M | $1.50B | $314M | $612M | $1.22B | $10.07B | +19% | $3.12B | $2.16B | $770M | +27 | $468M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | $136.65 | Initial model, built off the Q2 2026 print: RMB 31.33B ($4.62B) consolidated revenue, Core AI-powered business at exactly half of Baidu General Business, RMB 11.39B of capex and free cash flow of -$1.17B. Seven verticals on the Core AI-powered cut rather than the reported revenue split, because the two cuts overlap. History rebuilt to six quarters from the Q2 2026, Q1 2026 and Q4 2025 releases so the first projected quarter carries a real year-over-year comparison. |