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What has to happen in Gateway products

Model as of

This page changes Gateway products inside the complete ASTS model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

ASTS forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value −$9.65 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $26M 18% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $19M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Paid service slips past the middle of the horizon and the model is left with gateway resale and government milestones. Q2 revenue missed consensus by $3.01m, only 6.6% of the ~$1.2bn of remaining performance obligations is expected in the next twelve months against a $150-200m guided year, and the BlueBird 7 launch failure cost $125.9m in a single quarter. This case does not assume the constellation stops - it assumes the money the constellation earns arrives years later and at a worse price.

Gateway products

Basis quarter$24M
Final quarter$26M
Implied CAGR+1%
Final revenue mix18%

AST resells gateway equipment, software and related services to MNO partners so they can build the ground segment the SpaceMobile Service runs over. It is an infrastructure build-out line, not an annuity: revenue front-loads per market as gateways are delivered and accepted. Thirteen gateways went to seven customers across five continents in the basis quarter against a disclosed footprint of nearly 50 gateways in various stages of completion, installation and planning, so units times realisation is the only honest driver.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $8M Reported
2025 Q4 $36M Estimated
2026 Q1 $13M Reported
2026 Q2 $24M Reported
Gateway equipment resaleGateway software and related services
Units 13/qtr growing +15.0% per quarter 13 gateways delivered to seven customers in 2026 Q2 - the only quarter AST has ever given a unit count.
Price per unit $2M drifting −1.5% per quarter $1.879m = Q2 products revenue over 13 gateways. An average realisation, not a contract price.
Gateway products

Latest: $26M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $375,000.00
2025Q2 $50,000.00
2025Q3 $8M
2025Q4 $36M
2026Q1 $13M
2026Q2 $24M
2026Q3E $27M
2026Q4E $30M
2027Q1E $34M
2027Q2E $37M
2027Q3E $36M
2027Q4E $35M
2028Q1E $34M
2028Q2E $34M
2028Q3E $33M
2028Q4E $32M
2029Q1E $31M
2029Q2E $31M
2029Q3E $30M
2029Q4E $29M
2030Q1E $29M
2030Q2E $28M
2030Q3E $28M
2030Q4E $27M
2031Q1E $26M
2031Q2E $26M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Margin here is contribution after cost of revenues - products only. Q2 2026 was (24,428 - 22,402) / 24,428 = 8.3%, down from 17.5% in Q1 2026 and 25.6% for FY2025 as low-margin gateway resale scaled. The terminal 12% assumes mix shifts toward software attach, not that hardware resale becomes a software business.
  • Related-party products revenue was $1.918m in the basis quarter and $9.770m in the first half, sold into SatCo, the 50/50 Vodafone European joint venture. A meaningful slice of this line is therefore sold into a vehicle AST half-owns and resells through under an exclusive reseller agreement.
  • One quarter of unit disclosure exists and it came from the earnings call, not from a filing. Delivery timing turns on a small number of customer acceptances, which is what produced the $3.01m Q2 revenue miss against a $34.53m consensus.
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