ASTS · Forward model · Gateway products
What has to happen in Gateway products
Model as of
This page changes Gateway products inside the complete ASTS model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Gateway products
AST resells gateway equipment, software and related services to MNO partners so they can build the ground segment the SpaceMobile Service runs over. It is an infrastructure build-out line, not an annuity: revenue front-loads per market as gateways are delivered and accepted. Thirteen gateways went to seven customers across five continents in the basis quarter against a disclosed footprint of nearly 50 gateways in various stages of completion, installation and planning, so units times realisation is the only honest driver.
Latest: $35M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $375,000.00 |
| 2025Q2 | $50,000.00 |
| 2025Q3 | $8M |
| 2025Q4 | $36M |
| 2026Q1 | $13M |
| 2026Q2 | $24M |
| 2026Q3E | $28M |
| 2026Q4E | $31M |
| 2027Q1E | $36M |
| 2027Q2E | $39M |
| 2027Q3E | $39M |
| 2027Q4E | $38M |
| 2028Q1E | $38M |
| 2028Q2E | $38M |
| 2028Q3E | $38M |
| 2028Q4E | $37M |
| 2029Q1E | $37M |
| 2029Q2E | $37M |
| 2029Q3E | $37M |
| 2029Q4E | $36M |
| 2030Q1E | $36M |
| 2030Q2E | $36M |
| 2030Q3E | $36M |
| 2030Q4E | $35M |
| 2031Q1E | $35M |
| 2031Q2E | $35M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Margin here is contribution after cost of revenues - products only. Q2 2026 was (24,428 - 22,402) / 24,428 = 8.3%, down from 17.5% in Q1 2026 and 25.6% for FY2025 as low-margin gateway resale scaled. The terminal 12% assumes mix shifts toward software attach, not that hardware resale becomes a software business.
- Related-party products revenue was $1.918m in the basis quarter and $9.770m in the first half, sold into SatCo, the 50/50 Vodafone European joint venture. A meaningful slice of this line is therefore sold into a vehicle AST half-owns and resells through under an exclusive reseller agreement.
- One quarter of unit disclosure exists and it came from the earnings call, not from a filing. Delivery timing turns on a small number of customer acceptances, which is what produced the $3.01m Q2 revenue miss against a $34.53m consensus.