ASTS · Forward model · SpaceMobile Service · Bear case
What has to happen in SpaceMobile Service
Model as of
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SpaceMobile Service
The commercial product: MNO partners keep the subscriber and AST supplies the space segment, earning a share of end-customer revenue plus contracted fixed consideration, recognised over the life of the contract beginning when AST provides MNOs access to its satellite network. Nothing has been recognised to date. Satellites in orbit set the capacity ceiling and AST publishes the thresholds - 25 for noncontinuous service, 45 to 60 for continuous coverage of key markets, about 90 for all target markets - so the volume side is disclosed and the price side is not.
Latest: $66M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2026Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q1E | $26M |
| 2027Q2E | $42M |
| 2027Q3E | $56M |
| 2027Q4E | $68M |
| 2028Q1E | $77M |
| 2028Q2E | $83M |
| 2028Q3E | $88M |
| 2028Q4E | $90M |
| 2029Q1E | $91M |
| 2029Q2E | $90M |
| 2029Q3E | $89M |
| 2029Q4E | $86M |
| 2030Q1E | $84M |
| 2030Q2E | $80M |
| 2030Q3E | $77M |
| 2030Q4E | $74M |
| 2031Q1E | $70M |
| 2031Q2E | $66M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Every monetisation input on this line is assumed. AST has never published an ARPU, a wholesale rate, a revenue-share percentage or a subscriber count, and the variable MNO revenue-share consideration is explicitly constrained out of remaining performance obligations because the amount to be received is uncertain. The $2.8m per satellite-quarter comes from management's own goal of approaching $1bn in the first commercial year with government about half of it.
- Satellites in orbit is not the same as usable capacity. The 13 spacecraft include Block 1 and test assets, aggregate usable throughput per market is undisclosed, and commercial service in the United States still needs the remaining Part 25 modification granted. Every other market needs its own regulator. That is what the utilisation glide is standing in for.
- Contract liabilities were $266.9m at 30 June 2026 and include advance consideration for SpaceMobile Service performance obligations, so cash has been collected before any revenue is recognised. European distribution runs through SatCo, the 50/50 Vodafone joint venture, under an exclusive reseller agreement, which is a second party between AST and the end customer.