ASTS · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
AST reports ONE operating segment. The only disclosed revenue split is the two income-statement lines, products and services, and this model uses exactly those as its two live verticals: gateway products and government/engineering services. They sum to reported consolidated revenue in every quarter shown - $0.718m, $1.156m, $14.739m, $54.305m, $14.735m and $31.520m - with 2025 Q3 and 2025 Q4 derived from the disclosed $7.7m gateway-resale note and the audited FY2025 split, so the derived services line reproduces FY2025 services of $26.529m exactly. Those two quarters are flagged estimated. A third vertical, SpaceMobile Service, is added with explicit estimated zeros through the basis quarter and a two-quarter delay: the company states it has not recognised any SpaceMobile Service revenue and the 2026 beta is explicitly non-commercial. Vertical margins are CONTRIBUTION margins after cost of revenues only; the entire adjusted operating base ($95.9m in the basis quarter), the constellation build and the Ligado payments are carried once each in corporate programmes, so no operating cost is counted twice and no vertical carries constellation capex. The base case does NOT reach FY2026 guidance: it lands near $130m against a guided $150-200m and an FY2026 consensus of $168.5m. That is the model's finding, not a rounding error - only 6.6% of the ~$1.2bn of remaining performance obligations ($79.2m) is expected to be recognised over the next twelve months, so the guided second half depends on new awards being won and recognised inside the same year. Share count is held flat at the 6 August 2026 count across Class A, B and C; the cash burn implied by the programmes almost certainly needs more capital, and that dilution is not modelled.
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Latest: $148M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $718,000.00 |
| 2025Q2 | $1M |
| 2025Q3 | $15M |
| 2025Q4 | $54M |
| 2026Q1 | $15M |
| 2026Q2 | $32M |
| 2026Q3E | $37M |
| 2026Q4E | $44M |
| 2027Q1E | $77M |
| 2027Q2E | $99M |
| 2027Q3E | $116M |
| 2027Q4E | $130M |
| 2028Q1E | $141M |
| 2028Q2E | $149M |
| 2028Q3E | $155M |
| 2028Q4E | $158M |
| 2029Q1E | $160M |
| 2029Q2E | $161M |
| 2029Q3E | $161M |
| 2029Q4E | $160M |
| 2030Q1E | $158M |
| 2030Q2E | $156M |
| 2030Q3E | $154M |
| 2030Q4E | $152M |
| 2031Q1E | $150M |
| 2031Q2E | $148M |
Where each case comes from
Avellan case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Avellan column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Q2 2026 earnings call, 10 August 2026: the first commercial year
- Aug 10, 2026 Nothing's changed on our expectation and our goal of approaching $1 billion of revenue in our first year of commercial service. Next year, the way to think about it is still a really strong opportunity in government that could contribute to probably as much as half of that.
- Aug 10, 2026 We have 10 launches booked with two different providers, and we're targeting a cadence of every month or two on average.
Q2 2026 business update, 10 August 2026: the constellation and the funding
From cash flow to fair value
The published model, discounted at 15.0% a year with an exit multiple of 4.0x on revenue. The horizon and sliders above do not change this walk.
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | −$4.53B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $604M |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $268M |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 4.0x |
| Terminal value | $2.41B |
| Discounted at 15.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $1.20B |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | -36% |
| Enterprise value | −$3.33B |
| Net cash | −$430M |
| Equity value | −$3.76B |
| Shares | 0.39B |
| Fair value per share | −$9.65 |
| Against the deployed price of $58.86, as of | −116% |
13% for a pre-revenue, single-asset business exposed to launch outcomes and to a regulator in every market it wants to sell in - above a mature satellite operator's cost of capital and below a venture rate, because the constellation is partly built and $3.7bn of pro forma cash is on the balance sheet. The exit is 6.0x trailing-year revenue, below Iridium's 7.45x EV/Sales on the same date, because terminal AST is assumed more capital-hungry and less proven than Iridium; Globalstar's 37.81x is not used as an anchor for anything. The answer moves almost one-for-one with two assumed sliders: revenue per satellite-quarter and the quarter paid service starts. Today's tape is 136x the midpoint of guided 2026 revenue.
Read the other way round: at $58.86 the market is paying 92.9x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
Capex outside the verticals
Each vertical's capex is a share of its own revenue, which is the right shape for capacity that scales with sales. These are not that: fixed-size programmes with their own schedule that spend whether or not any segment grows. They are added on top, and they are why free cash flow dips in the years below.
Block 2 constellation build and launch
2026 Q3 → 2028 Q2AST states it is fully funded to manufacture and launch approximately 90 Block 2 satellites at $21-23m of average capital cost each, with initial launches above that range and trending down. Seventy-seven more satellites plus the ground segment is about $2.6bn; spread over eight quarters that is $325m each, against Q3 2026 capex guided to $350-425m and $597.6m actually spent in Q2 2026.
Constellation replenishment and expansion
2028 Q3 → 2031 Q2Block 2 satellites have a finite life and the FCC authorisation covers a 248-satellite network, so deployment does not stop at 90. $120m a quarter from 2028 Q3 is roughly five satellites a quarter at the disclosed unit cost - a replenishment rate, well below the build rate it follows.
Operating cost base through the build
2026 Q3 → 2028 Q2Adjusted operating expenses excluding adjusted cost of revenues were $95.9m in the basis quarter. Engineering and G&A scale with the launch campaign at about 4% a quarter through 2028 Q2, averaging $114.9m. Carried here so the operating base is counted once, outside every vertical margin.
Operating cost base after the build
2028 Q3 → 2031 Q2Overhead flattens once the roughly 90-satellite build completes, but it does not fall: $131.2m a quarter, the level the 4% ramp reaches in 2028 Q2, held flat for the last twelve quarters of the horizon.
Ligado L-band spectrum access
2026 Q3 → 2031 Q2SpectrumCo owes spectrum access usage payments of at least $80.0m a year for the right to use up to 40 MHz of L-band, plus the $30m of consideration not yet paid of the $550m total. $520m has already been paid and the transaction has not closed.
The projected path
The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.
| Quarter | Gateway products | Government and engineering services | SpaceMobile Service | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $27M | $10M | $0 | $37M | +154% | $9M | $461M | −$453M | −1058 | −$437M |
| 2026 Q4E | $30M | $13M | $0 | $44M | −19% | $11M | $461M | −$450M | −1044 | −$420M |
| 2027 Q1E | $34M | $17M | $26M | $77M | +421% | $15M | $461M | −$446M | −160 | −$402M |
| 2027 Q2E | $37M | $20M | $42M | $99M | +215% | $21M | $461M | −$440M | −229 | −$383M |
| 2027 Q3E | $36M | $24M | $56M | $116M | +210% | $28M | $461M | −$434M | −165 | −$364M |
| 2027 Q4E | $35M | $27M | $68M | $130M | +195% | $34M | $461M | −$427M | −134 | −$346M |
| 2028 Q1E | $34M | $29M | $77M | $141M | +83% | $41M | $461M | −$421M | −216 | −$329M |
| 2028 Q2E | $34M | $32M | $83M | $149M | +50% | $46M | $461M | −$415M | −229 | −$314M |
| 2028 Q3E | $33M | $34M | $88M | $155M | +34% | $51M | $273M | −$221M | −110 | −$162M |
| 2028 Q4E | $32M | $36M | $90M | $158M | +22% | $55M | $273M | −$217M | −115 | −$153M |
| 2029 Q1E | $31M | $38M | $91M | $160M | +14% | $59M | $273M | −$214M | −119 | −$146M |
| 2029 Q2E | $31M | $40M | $90M | $161M | +8% | $61M | $273M | −$212M | −123 | −$139M |
| 2029 Q3E | $30M | $42M | $89M | $161M | +4% | $63M | $273M | −$210M | −126 | −$133M |
| 2029 Q4E | $29M | $44M | $86M | $160M | +1% | $65M | $273M | −$208M | −129 | −$128M |
| 2030 Q1E | $29M | $46M | $84M | $158M | −1% | $66M | $273M | −$207M | −132 | −$123M |
| 2030 Q2E | $28M | $48M | $80M | $156M | −3% | $66M | $273M | −$206M | −135 | −$118M |
| 2030 Q3E | $28M | $50M | $77M | $154M | −4% | $67M | $273M | −$206M | −138 | −$114M |
| 2030 Q4E | $27M | $51M | $74M | $152M | −5% | $67M | $273M | −$206M | −140 | −$110M |
| 2031 Q1E | $26M | $53M | $70M | $150M | −5% | $67M | $273M | −$205M | −143 | −$106M |
| 2031 Q2E | $26M | $55M | $66M | $148M | −6% | $67M | $273M | −$205M | −145 | −$102M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | $0.97 | Initial model from the verified 2026 Q2 research brief. Products and services as the two disclosed verticals, SpaceMobile Service added as a delayed capacity line starting 2027 Q1, constellation and operating base carried as corporate programmes. |