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ASTS · Forward model · Gateway products · Bull case

What has to happen in Gateway products

Model as of

This page changes Gateway products inside the complete ASTS model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

ASTS forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $47.53 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $57M 5% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $118M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Government scales the way management describes it while the constellation reaches continuous coverage of key markets and the service prices above the assumed $2.8m a satellite-quarter. Backlog is already ~$1.30bn, over $125m of new US Government awards landed in the basis quarter, and the Rakuten joint venture was preliminarily selected by Japan's MIC for J-LEO with up to ~$1bn of non-dilutive, non-debt government capital. It does not assume the Ligado transaction closes or that spectrum beyond the current authorisations is granted.

Gateway products

Basis quarter$24M
Final quarter$57M
Implied CAGR+19%
Final revenue mix5%

AST resells gateway equipment, software and related services to MNO partners so they can build the ground segment the SpaceMobile Service runs over. It is an infrastructure build-out line, not an annuity: revenue front-loads per market as gateways are delivered and accepted. Thirteen gateways went to seven customers across five continents in the basis quarter against a disclosed footprint of nearly 50 gateways in various stages of completion, installation and planning, so units times realisation is the only honest driver.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $8M Reported
2025 Q4 $36M Estimated
2026 Q1 $13M Reported
2026 Q2 $24M Reported
Gateway equipment resaleGateway software and related services
Units 13/qtr growing +15.0% per quarter 13 gateways delivered to seven customers in 2026 Q2 - the only quarter AST has ever given a unit count.
Price per unit $2M drifting −1.5% per quarter $1.879m = Q2 products revenue over 13 gateways. An average realisation, not a contract price.
Gateway products

Latest: $57M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $375,000.00
2025Q2 $50,000.00
2025Q3 $8M
2025Q4 $36M
2026Q1 $13M
2026Q2 $24M
2026Q3E $28M
2026Q4E $33M
2027Q1E $38M
2027Q2E $43M
2027Q3E $44M
2027Q4E $45M
2028Q1E $45M
2028Q2E $46M
2028Q3E $47M
2028Q4E $48M
2029Q1E $49M
2029Q2E $49M
2029Q3E $50M
2029Q4E $51M
2030Q1E $52M
2030Q2E $53M
2030Q3E $54M
2030Q4E $55M
2031Q1E $56M
2031Q2E $57M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Margin here is contribution after cost of revenues - products only. Q2 2026 was (24,428 - 22,402) / 24,428 = 8.3%, down from 17.5% in Q1 2026 and 25.6% for FY2025 as low-margin gateway resale scaled. The terminal 12% assumes mix shifts toward software attach, not that hardware resale becomes a software business.
  • Related-party products revenue was $1.918m in the basis quarter and $9.770m in the first half, sold into SatCo, the 50/50 Vodafone European joint venture. A meaningful slice of this line is therefore sold into a vehicle AST half-owns and resells through under an exclusive reseller agreement.
  • One quarter of unit disclosure exists and it came from the earnings call, not from a filing. Delivery timing turns on a small number of customer acceptances, which is what produced the $3.01m Q2 revenue miss against a $34.53m consensus.
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