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ASTS · Forward model · Gateway products · Avellan case

What has to happen in Gateway products

Model as of

This page changes Gateway products inside the complete ASTS model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

ASTS forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $130.65 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $52M 3% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $101M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Management's own stated goal taken literally: approaching $1bn of revenue in the first full year of commercial service with government about half of it, on roughly 45 satellites in early 2027 and a fully funded path to about 90. This case tilts the service line and the government line, it does not move the 2027 Q1 start date, invent a disclosed price, or assume the ~$1.30bn backlog converts faster than the 6.6% of RPO the company says it will recognise in twelve months. It also does not fund itself: the capital programmes still spend, and the extra revenue does not close the cash gap inside the horizon.

Gateway products

Basis quarter$24M
Final quarter$52M
Implied CAGR+16%
Final revenue mix3%

AST resells gateway equipment, software and related services to MNO partners so they can build the ground segment the SpaceMobile Service runs over. It is an infrastructure build-out line, not an annuity: revenue front-loads per market as gateways are delivered and accepted. Thirteen gateways went to seven customers across five continents in the basis quarter against a disclosed footprint of nearly 50 gateways in various stages of completion, installation and planning, so units times realisation is the only honest driver.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $8M Reported
2025 Q4 $36M Estimated
2026 Q1 $13M Reported
2026 Q2 $24M Reported
Gateway equipment resaleGateway software and related services
Units 13/qtr growing +15.0% per quarter 13 gateways delivered to seven customers in 2026 Q2 - the only quarter AST has ever given a unit count.
Price per unit $2M drifting −1.5% per quarter $1.879m = Q2 products revenue over 13 gateways. An average realisation, not a contract price.
Gateway products

Latest: $52M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $375,000.00
2025Q2 $50,000.00
2025Q3 $8M
2025Q4 $36M
2026Q1 $13M
2026Q2 $24M
2026Q3E $28M
2026Q4E $33M
2027Q1E $38M
2027Q2E $42M
2027Q3E $43M
2027Q4E $43M
2028Q1E $44M
2028Q2E $44M
2028Q3E $45M
2028Q4E $45M
2029Q1E $46M
2029Q2E $47M
2029Q3E $47M
2029Q4E $48M
2030Q1E $49M
2030Q2E $49M
2030Q3E $50M
2030Q4E $51M
2031Q1E $51M
2031Q2E $52M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Margin here is contribution after cost of revenues - products only. Q2 2026 was (24,428 - 22,402) / 24,428 = 8.3%, down from 17.5% in Q1 2026 and 25.6% for FY2025 as low-margin gateway resale scaled. The terminal 12% assumes mix shifts toward software attach, not that hardware resale becomes a software business.
  • Related-party products revenue was $1.918m in the basis quarter and $9.770m in the first half, sold into SatCo, the 50/50 Vodafone European joint venture. A meaningful slice of this line is therefore sold into a vehicle AST half-owns and resells through under an exclusive reseller agreement.
  • One quarter of unit disclosure exists and it came from the earnings call, not from a filing. Delivery timing turns on a small number of customer acceptances, which is what produced the $3.01m Q2 revenue miss against a $34.53m consensus.
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