AMZN · Forward model · AWS · Bull case
What has to happen in AWS
Model as of
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AWS
Basis quarter$42.20B
Final quarter$191.04B
Implied CAGR+35%
Final revenue mix36%
Compute, storage, databases, model APIs and Amazon's own silicon. $42.2B in 2026 Q2, up 37% - the fastest in eighteen quarters - on a $169B annualised run rate, with operating margin up 650 basis points to 39.4%. It is 21% of Amazon's revenue and 60% of its operating income, and it is the only segment whose revenue is genuinely supply-gated: what AWS can sell this quarter is what it managed to energise.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$33.00B
Reported
2025 Q4
$35.60B
Reported
2026 Q1
$37.60B
Reported
2026 Q2
$42.20B
Reported
Compute, storage and databasesBedrock, SageMaker and model APIsTrainium and Inferentia custom siliconData transfer, networking and managed services
Megawatts energised
7000 MW
at the basis quarter
7,000 MW energised, derived from the disclosed 3.8 GW added in a year and the plan to double capacity by 2027.
Megawatts added
950 MW/qtr
changing −2.0% per quarter
950 MW a quarter - the 3.8 GW trailing-year build rate, the one physical number Amazon has actually put a figure on.
Utilisation
88%
gliding toward 93%
88% of what is energised is sold. AWS says demand exceeds supply, so the gap here is commissioning, not weak demand.
Revenue per MW
$6.85M/qtr
drifting −2.0% per quarter
$6.85M per MW a quarter, $42.2B over 7,000 MW at 88%. Derived from the capacity estimate, not disclosed.
AWS
Latest: $191.04B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $29.27B |
| 2025Q2 | $30.87B |
| 2025Q3 | $33.00B |
| 2025Q4 | $35.60B |
| 2026Q1 | $37.60B |
| 2026Q2 | $42.20B |
| 2026Q3E | $48.67B |
| 2026Q4E | $55.22B |
| 2027Q1E | $61.86B |
| 2027Q2E | $68.60B |
| 2027Q3E | $75.43B |
| 2027Q4E | $82.36B |
| 2028Q1E | $89.39B |
| 2028Q2E | $96.52B |
| 2028Q3E | $103.76B |
| 2028Q4E | $111.11B |
| 2029Q1E | $118.57B |
| 2029Q2E | $126.14B |
| 2029Q3E | $133.83B |
| 2029Q4E | $141.64B |
| 2030Q1E | $149.56B |
| 2030Q2E | $157.61B |
| 2030Q3E | $165.78B |
| 2030Q4E | $174.07B |
| 2031Q1E | $182.49B |
| 2031Q2E | $191.04B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Modelled as megawatts energised x utilisation x revenue per megawatt rather than as a growth rate, because management has said repeatedly that demand exceeds what is switched on. When supply is the constraint, a growth rate is the answer rather than the question: it hides the build behind the number the build produces.
- 7,000 MW energised is derived from Amazon's own disclosure that it added more than 3.8 GW of capacity in a trailing year and intends to double total capacity by 2027. It is not a figure Amazon publishes as a stock, and revenue per megawatt follows from it: $42.2B over 7,000 MW at 88% utilised is about $6.85M a megawatt a quarter, or $27M a year.
- The build rate is set to fade 2% a quarter rather than compound. Holding 950 MW a quarter flat for five years puts AWS above 26 GW and roughly $500B of annual revenue by 2031, which is two thirds of what the whole company earns today - the model would be reporting the build rate as a result rather than testing it. The fade is the honest version, and it is the input most worth dragging.
- Revenue per megawatt drifts down 2% a quarter toward -1%. Compute prices fall, and inference in particular falls fast; what offsets it is mix, as managed AI services and Trainium capacity sell for more per watt than raw EC2 did. Holding price flat would add roughly a fifth to the terminal revenue on no evidence at all.
- The EBITDA margin of 65% is the disclosed 39.4% operating margin plus an assumed share of depreciation, which for a segment absorbing most of a $200B capital programme is very large and getting larger. The margin and the capex intensity are two views of the same money, so moving one without the other double-counts the build.
- Capex intensity of 85% of segment revenue is what roughly $200B of guided 2026 spending looks like once North America's fulfilment share is removed. It glides to 35%, which is the assumption the entire fair value rests on: it is the claim that this build has an end, and that free cash flow returns once it does.