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What has to happen in Gaming

Model as of

This page changes Gaming inside the complete AMD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

AMD forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $76.42 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $368M 3% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $377M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Instinct attach stalls, Helios slips, and Data Center growth fades toward EPYC-only. Gaming stays in the trough. Capex does not fall back, so cash stays compressed. What this case does NOT assume is a return to the $800M China-charge quarter or a loss of the Ryzen franchise. It says 2026 was the peak growth year for GPU content.

Gaming

Basis quarter$779M
Final quarter$368M
Implied CAGR−14%
Final revenue mix3%

Semi-custom console SoCs plus Radeon discrete GPUs. $779M in the basis quarter, down 31% year over year on lower semi-custom. This is a console-cycle trough, not a franchise collapse. Opening growth is zero: the Q1-to-Q2 bounce is not a new cycle.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.30B Reported
2025 Q4 $843M Reported
2026 Q1 $720M Reported
2026 Q2 $779M Reported
Semi-custom SoCs for game consolesRadeon discrete GPUsSemi-custom development services
Sequential growth 0.0%/qtr decaying toward +0.5% Zero. Year-over-year still −31% on semi-custom. The Q1-to-Q2 bounce is not a new console cycle.
Gaming

Latest: $368M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $647M
2025Q2 $1.12B
2025Q3 $1.30B
2025Q4 $843M
2026Q1 $720M
2026Q2 $779M
2026Q3E $748M
2026Q4E $718M
2027Q1E $691M
2027Q2E $664M
2027Q3E $639M
2027Q4E $615M
2028Q1E $593M
2028Q2E $571M
2028Q3E $550M
2028Q4E $530M
2029Q1E $511M
2029Q2E $493M
2029Q3E $475M
2029Q4E $458M
2030Q1E $442M
2030Q2E $426M
2030Q3E $411M
2030Q4E $396M
2031Q1E $382M
2031Q2E $368M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The 2025 H2 prints ($1.3B, $843M) were semi-custom. Q2 2026 at $779M is that cycle rolling off, which is why opening growth is zero rather than the +8% sequential bounce.
  • Margin 12% is below the 15.2% Client-and-Gaming blend because semi-custom is the weaker half. AMD does not publish Gaming operating income. If you think discrete GPUs are the future of this line, the margin slider is where that lives.
  • A next-generation console win would show up as a delayed jump, not as 0.5% terminal growth. That is a bull-case claim this line does not make.
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