← AMD forward model

AMD · Forward model · Gaming · Su Double case

What has to happen in Gaming

Model as of

This page changes Gaming inside the complete AMD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

AMD forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $2,247.15 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.24B 1% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.63B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Lisa Su on the 4 August 2026 call: data center segment revenue to more than double year-over-year in 2027. FY2026 Data Center on the base path is already in the high-$20Bs; a 2027 double is north of $50B. This case pays for that on the same four lines, without inventing an Instinct sub-segment. It does not claim the 2 GW Anthropic or 6 GW Meta figures are contracted revenue.

Gaming

Basis quarter$779M
Final quarter$1.24B
Implied CAGR+10%
Final revenue mix1%

Semi-custom console SoCs plus Radeon discrete GPUs. $779M in the basis quarter, down 31% year over year on lower semi-custom. This is a console-cycle trough, not a franchise collapse. Opening growth is zero: the Q1-to-Q2 bounce is not a new cycle.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.30B Reported
2025 Q4 $843M Reported
2026 Q1 $720M Reported
2026 Q2 $779M Reported
Semi-custom SoCs for game consolesRadeon discrete GPUsSemi-custom development services
Sequential growth 0.0%/qtr decaying toward +0.5% Zero. Year-over-year still −31% on semi-custom. The Q1-to-Q2 bounce is not a new console cycle.
Gaming

Latest: $1.24B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $647M
2025Q2 $1.12B
2025Q3 $1.30B
2025Q4 $843M
2026Q1 $720M
2026Q2 $779M
2026Q3E $787M
2026Q4E $797M
2027Q1E $809M
2027Q2E $824M
2027Q3E $840M
2027Q4E $858M
2028Q1E $877M
2028Q2E $898M
2028Q3E $920M
2028Q4E $944M
2029Q1E $969M
2029Q2E $994M
2029Q3E $1.02B
2029Q4E $1.05B
2030Q1E $1.08B
2030Q2E $1.11B
2030Q3E $1.14B
2030Q4E $1.18B
2031Q1E $1.21B
2031Q2E $1.24B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The 2025 H2 prints ($1.3B, $843M) were semi-custom. Q2 2026 at $779M is that cycle rolling off, which is why opening growth is zero rather than the +8% sequential bounce.
  • Margin 12% is below the 15.2% Client-and-Gaming blend because semi-custom is the weaker half. AMD does not publish Gaming operating income. If you think discrete GPUs are the future of this line, the margin slider is where that lives.
  • A next-generation console win would show up as a delayed jump, not as 0.5% terminal growth. That is a bull-case claim this line does not make.
AMD model map

Explore another vertical