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AMD · Forward model · Gaming

What has to happen in Gaming

Model as of

This page changes Gaming inside the complete AMD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

AMD forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $360.64 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $834M 2% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $972M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Gaming

Basis quarter$779M
Final quarter$834M
Implied CAGR+1%
Final revenue mix2%

Semi-custom console SoCs plus Radeon discrete GPUs. $779M in the basis quarter, down 31% year over year on lower semi-custom. This is a console-cycle trough, not a franchise collapse. Opening growth is zero: the Q1-to-Q2 bounce is not a new cycle.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.30B Reported
2025 Q4 $843M Reported
2026 Q1 $720M Reported
2026 Q2 $779M Reported
Semi-custom SoCs for game consolesRadeon discrete GPUsSemi-custom development services
Sequential growth 0.0%/qtr decaying toward +0.5% Zero. Year-over-year still −31% on semi-custom. The Q1-to-Q2 bounce is not a new console cycle.
Gaming

Latest: $834M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $647M
2025Q2 $1.12B
2025Q3 $1.30B
2025Q4 $843M
2026Q1 $720M
2026Q2 $779M
2026Q3E $779M
2026Q4E $780M
2027Q1E $781M
2027Q2E $782M
2027Q3E $784M
2027Q4E $786M
2028Q1E $789M
2028Q2E $791M
2028Q3E $794M
2028Q4E $797M
2029Q1E $800M
2029Q2E $804M
2029Q3E $807M
2029Q4E $811M
2030Q1E $814M
2030Q2E $818M
2030Q3E $822M
2030Q4E $826M
2031Q1E $830M
2031Q2E $834M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The 2025 H2 prints ($1.3B, $843M) were semi-custom. Q2 2026 at $779M is that cycle rolling off, which is why opening growth is zero rather than the +8% sequential bounce.
  • Margin 12% is below the 15.2% Client-and-Gaming blend because semi-custom is the weaker half. AMD does not publish Gaming operating income. If you think discrete GPUs are the future of this line, the margin slider is where that lives.
  • A next-generation console win would show up as a delayed jump, not as 0.5% terminal growth. That is a bull-case claim this line does not make.
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