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What has to happen in Client

Model as of

This page changes Client inside the complete AMD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

AMD forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $76.42 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.26B 20% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $3.27B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Instinct attach stalls, Helios slips, and Data Center growth fades toward EPYC-only. Gaming stays in the trough. Capex does not fall back, so cash stays compressed. What this case does NOT assume is a return to the $800M China-charge quarter or a loss of the Ryzen franchise. It says 2026 was the peak growth year for GPU content.

Client

Basis quarter$3.06B
Final quarter$2.26B
Implied CAGR−6%
Final revenue mix20%

Ryzen CPUs for notebooks and desktops. $3.06B in the basis quarter, +23% year over year and +6% sequential. A PC-cycle line with share gains, disclosed every quarter inside Client and Gaming. Operating income is not split from Gaming, so the 16% margin is an assumption about mix.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.80B Reported
2025 Q4 $3.10B Estimated
2026 Q1 $2.88B Reported
2026 Q2 $3.06B Reported
Ryzen desktop and mobile processorsRyzen AI / Copilot+ PCsChipsets
Sequential growth +6.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 6% QoQ, matching Q1-to-Q2. Holds that pace into a seasonally stronger PC half rather than extrapolating 23% YoY.
Client

Latest: $2.26B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $2.29B
2025Q2 $2.50B
2025Q3 $2.80B
2025Q4 $3.10B
2026Q1 $2.88B
2026Q2 $3.06B
2026Q3E $3.12B
2026Q4E $3.14B
2027Q1E $3.15B
2027Q2E $3.14B
2027Q3E $3.11B
2027Q4E $3.08B
2028Q1E $3.03B
2028Q2E $2.98B
2028Q3E $2.93B
2028Q4E $2.87B
2029Q1E $2.81B
2029Q2E $2.75B
2029Q3E $2.69B
2029Q4E $2.63B
2030Q1E $2.56B
2030Q2E $2.50B
2030Q3E $2.44B
2030Q4E $2.38B
2031Q1E $2.32B
2031Q2E $2.26B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Client and Gaming operating income is $582M, 15.2% of the combined $3,841M. Client is 80% of that revenue. 16% is the blend plus a point, an assumption, not a disclosure.
  • Q4 2025 $3,097M is combined Client-and-Gaming $3,940M from the Q1 2026 slides less disclosed Gaming $843M. IR printed Client as a record $3.1 billion.
  • Opening 6% is the trailing sequential rate, not the 23% year-over-year print. A reader who thinks AI PCs are a new cycle should take the slider up; a reader who thinks Q2 was a catch-up should take it down.
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