AMD · Forward model · Data Center · Bear case
What has to happen in Data Center
Model as of
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Data Center
Basis quarter$6.72B
Final quarter$7.55B
Implied CAGR+2%
Final revenue mix68%
EPYC server CPUs and Instinct GPUs, now sold increasingly as Helios racks. 58% of the basis quarter, up 107% year over year. What paces it is packaging, HBM and customer-site power, none of which AMD publishes as a unit or megawatt series, so the projection is sequential growth on the reported segment. Lisa Su's 2027 double is the named case, not the opening rate.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$4.29B
Estimated
2025 Q4
$5.38B
Reported
2026 Q1
$5.78B
Reported
2026 Q2
$6.72B
Reported
EPYC server CPUsInstinct GPUs — MI350 now, MI400/MI450 nextHelios rack-scale systemsPensando DPUs, AI NICs, data-center FPGAs
Sequential growth
+18.0%/qtr
decaying toward +3.0%
18% QoQ. Q1-to-Q2 was +16%; Hu said DC accelerates in H2. 18% plus the other lines hits the $13.0B Q3 midpoint.
Data Center
Latest: $7.55B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $3.67B |
| 2025Q2 | $3.24B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.29B |
| 2025Q4 | $5.38B |
| 2026Q1 | $5.78B |
| 2026Q2 | $6.72B |
| 2026Q3E | $7.45B |
| 2026Q4E | $8.08B |
| 2027Q1E | $8.59B |
| 2027Q2E | $8.98B |
| 2027Q3E | $9.27B |
| 2027Q4E | $9.46B |
| 2028Q1E | $9.56B |
| 2028Q2E | $9.59B |
| 2028Q3E | $9.56B |
| 2028Q4E | $9.49B |
| 2029Q1E | $9.37B |
| 2029Q2E | $9.22B |
| 2029Q3E | $9.05B |
| 2029Q4E | $8.86B |
| 2030Q1E | $8.65B |
| 2030Q2E | $8.44B |
| 2030Q3E | $8.22B |
| 2030Q4E | $8.00B |
| 2031Q1E | $7.78B |
| 2031Q2E | $7.55B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- A growth driver rather than units, and that is the honest answer. AMD publishes no GPU shipments, no Helios rack count and no ASP. Backing out a rack at an assumed $2-3M would look like the Nvidia model and would be fiction: even the customer GW headlines (Anthropic 2 GW, Meta 6 GW) are not a disclosed MW series.
- Opening 18% is the Q3 guide, not the trailing 16%. Combined with Client +6%, Gaming flat and Embedded +8% it prints $13.0B, the midpoint of $12.7-13.3B. Jean Hu said Data Center sales accelerate in the second half; this is that, not Su's 2027 double.
- Segment operating margin 31.3% ($2,103M on $6,718M). Q2 2025 was −$155M because of $800M of MI308 China-export charges, so the year-ago margin is not a base. Terminal 34% is a few points of Instinct mix, not a walk to Nvidia 70%.
- Q3 2025 $4,289M is the $11M remainder after subtracting the IR-rounded Client, Gaming and Embedded lines from consolidated $9,246M. IR printed Data Center as $4.3 billion.