← Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
AMD · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
AMD reports THREE operating segments — Data Center, Client and Gaming, Embedded — and discloses Client and Gaming dollars separately inside the second of those. This model carries FOUR verticals so Gaming's console trough is not hidden inside Ryzen. Every historical point is copied from the 8-Ks or derived from two disclosures (Q4 2025 Client = combined $3,940M less Gaming $843M; Q3 2025 Data Center = consolidated $9,246M less the three IR-rounded lines, an $11M remainder). Instinct versus EPYC inside Data Center is NOT split: AMD does not publish it. Helios racks have no ASP or unit count, so Data Center is a growth driver rather than a unit driver — inventing a rack price would look more rigorous and be less true. Fiscal quarters are 13 weeks; 2026 Q2 ended 27 June 2026 and is labelled 2026 Q2. Segment 'EBITDA' here is the disclosed segment operating margin. Client and Gaming OP is published only as a pair ($582M, 15.2%); the 16% and 12% on those two lines are assumed mix. Corporate 9.4% is the All other bucket (acquisition-related amortisation, stock-based compensation, deal costs), not a fourth business. netCash is cash $5,086M plus short-term investments $8,025M less total debt $3,226M. Capex $808M is 7% of the basis quarter and may be a Helios stand-up spike; terminal 4% assumes that. Q2 2025 Data Center OP of −$155M included $800M of MI308 China-export charges and is not a clean year-ago.
Shares this page's scenario. Driver and horizon edits stay in your browser — the recipient sees the published model.
Latest: $11.06B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $7.44B |
| 2025Q2 | $7.68B |
| 2025Q3 | $9.25B |
| 2025Q4 | $10.27B |
| 2026Q1 | $10.25B |
| 2026Q2 | $11.54B |
| 2026Q3E | $12.33B |
| 2026Q4E | $12.98B |
| 2027Q1E | $13.48B |
| 2027Q2E | $13.85B |
| 2027Q3E | $14.10B |
| 2027Q4E | $14.23B |
| 2028Q1E | $14.26B |
| 2028Q2E | $14.21B |
| 2028Q3E | $14.10B |
| 2028Q4E | $13.93B |
| 2029Q1E | $13.72B |
| 2029Q2E | $13.48B |
| 2029Q3E | $13.21B |
| 2029Q4E | $12.92B |
| 2030Q1E | $12.62B |
| 2030Q2E | $12.32B |
| 2030Q3E | $12.00B |
| 2030Q4E | $11.69B |
| 2031Q1E | $11.38B |
| 2031Q2E | $11.06B |
Where each case comes from
Su Double case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Su Double column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
AMD Q2 2026 earnings call, 4 August 2026
- Aug 4, 2026 During Tuesday's earnings call, AMD CEO Lisa Su said the company expects “data center segment revenue to more than double year-over-year in 2027,” as well.
- Aug 4, 2026 Taken together, we now expect data center segment revenue to more than double year-over-year in 2027.
- Aug 4, 2026 We expect Data Center sales to accelerate in the second half of 2026, driving stronger overall revenue growth and continued earnings expansion.
From cash flow to fair value
The published model, discounted at 13.0% a year with an exit multiple of 4.0x on revenue. The horizon and sliders above do not change this walk.
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $16.73B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $46.13B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $7.35B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 4.0x |
| Terminal value | $184.53B |
| Discounted at 13.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $100.16B |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 86% |
| Enterprise value | $116.89B |
| Net cash | $9.88B |
| Equity value | $126.78B |
| Shares | 1.66B |
| Fair value per share | $76.42 |
| Against the deployed price of $611.76, as of | −88% |
7x terminal revenue on a mid-20s blended operating margin — about 25x that margin — for a fabless semiconductor whose Data Center line has stopped compounding at 18% a quarter. Today the equity is ~$758B at $456.75, EV ~$748B after $9.9B net cash, 18x trailing sales of $41.3B and ~15x a ~$49B FY2026. Nvidia is richer on 60-70% margins this model does not give AMD. The exit is a de-rate, and deliberately. Discount rate is 11%, a point above Nvidia, because Instinct share at Helios scale is unproven and Q2 just showed capex can double in a quarter. Move the exit multiple before anything else: at 4x and at 12x the answer moves by more than Client, Gaming and Embedded combined. Nothing here prices Anthropic's 2 GW or Meta's 6 GW as contracted cash flow; they show up only as the Data Center growth rate they can sustain.
Read the other way round: at $611.76 the market is paying 39.5x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.
| Quarter | Data Center | Client | Gaming | Embedded | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $7.45B | $3.12B | $748M | $1.01B | $12.33B | +33% | $1.66B | $819M | $733M | +39 | $711M |
| 2026 Q4E | $8.08B | $3.14B | $718M | $1.04B | $12.98B | +26% | $1.79B | $821M | $846M | +33 | $796M |
| 2027 Q1E | $8.59B | $3.15B | $691M | $1.06B | $13.48B | +32% | $1.90B | $815M | $947M | +39 | $864M |
| 2027 Q2E | $8.98B | $3.14B | $664M | $1.07B | $13.85B | +20% | $1.99B | $803M | $1.03B | +28 | $915M |
| 2027 Q3E | $9.27B | $3.11B | $639M | $1.08B | $14.10B | +14% | $2.06B | $787M | $1.11B | +22 | $950M |
| 2027 Q4E | $9.46B | $3.08B | $615M | $1.08B | $14.23B | +10% | $2.11B | $767M | $1.16B | +18 | $969M |
| 2028 Q1E | $9.56B | $3.03B | $593M | $1.07B | $14.26B | +6% | $2.14B | $745M | $1.21B | +14 | $976M |
| 2028 Q2E | $9.59B | $2.98B | $571M | $1.07B | $14.21B | +3% | $2.15B | $722M | $1.24B | +11 | $973M |
| 2028 Q3E | $9.56B | $2.93B | $550M | $1.06B | $14.10B | 0% | $2.15B | $698M | $1.26B | +9 | $960M |
| 2028 Q4E | $9.49B | $2.87B | $530M | $1.04B | $13.93B | −2% | $2.14B | $674M | $1.28B | +7 | $941M |
| 2029 Q1E | $9.37B | $2.81B | $511M | $1.03B | $13.72B | −4% | $2.12B | $650M | $1.28B | +6 | $916M |
| 2029 Q2E | $9.22B | $2.75B | $493M | $1.02B | $13.48B | −5% | $2.10B | $626M | $1.28B | +4 | $887M |
| 2029 Q3E | $9.05B | $2.69B | $475M | $1.00B | $13.21B | −6% | $2.07B | $604M | $1.27B | +3 | $855M |
| 2029 Q4E | $8.86B | $2.63B | $458M | $984M | $12.92B | −7% | $2.03B | $582M | $1.26B | +3 | $822M |
| 2030 Q1E | $8.65B | $2.56B | $442M | $967M | $12.62B | −8% | $1.99B | $561M | $1.24B | +2 | $787M |
| 2030 Q2E | $8.44B | $2.50B | $426M | $950M | $12.32B | −9% | $1.95B | $540M | $1.23B | +1 | $752M |
| 2030 Q3E | $8.22B | $2.44B | $411M | $932M | $12.00B | −9% | $1.91B | $521M | $1.20B | +1 | $717M |
| 2030 Q4E | $8.00B | $2.38B | $396M | $915M | $11.69B | −10% | $1.86B | $503M | $1.18B | +1 | $682M |
| 2031 Q1E | $7.78B | $2.32B | $382M | $897M | $11.38B | −10% | $1.82B | $485M | $1.16B | 0 | $648M |
| 2031 Q2E | $7.55B | $2.26B | $368M | $880M | $11.06B | −10% | $1.77B | $468M | $1.13B | 0 | $615M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | $360.64 | Initial model. Four verticals on the disclosed Data Center / Client / Gaming / Embedded split, basis the June quarter at $11,536M, Q3 calibrated to the $13.0B ± $300M guide. |