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ABBV · Forward model · Oncology · Apogee case

What has to happen in Oncology

Model as of

This page changes Oncology inside the complete ABBV model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

ABBV forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $303.96 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.77B 7% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $13.22B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

AbbVie buys the next immunology wave rather than growing it. Zumilokibart in atopic dermatitis and APG273 in asthma would add a second immunology engine beyond Skyrizi and Rinvoq. Modelled as a 6% step up in immunology revenue from 2029 Q3, three years after the announced close, which adds $3.09B to terminal-year revenue. What this case does NOT do: the $10.9 billion of equity value is not deducted from net cash and the $0.14 of 2026 EPS dilution is not in the path, so it is the revenue upside gross of what it costs.

Oncology

Basis quarter$1.65B
Final quarter$1.77B
Implied CAGR+1%
Final revenue mix7%

Venclexta, Elahere and Epkinly growth against Imbruvica erosion, which nets to a flat portfolio: $1,650M in 2026 Q2, -1.6% year over year, against $1,634M two years earlier. Part of the line is collaboration profit share rather than product sales, so no unit driver exists.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.68B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.66B Reported
2026 Q1 $1.63B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.65B Reported
VenclextaImbruvicaElahereEpkinlyOther Oncology
Sequential growth −0.2%/qtr decaying toward +0.8% -0.2% a quarter, the trailing four-quarter sequential rate, with Imbruvica still down 29.4% year over year.
Oncology

Latest: $1.77B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q3 $1.51B
2023Q4 $1.51B
2024Q1 $1.54B
2024Q2 $1.63B
2024Q3 $1.69B
2024Q4 $1.69B
2025Q1 $1.63B
2025Q2 $1.68B
2025Q3 $1.68B
2025Q4 $1.66B
2026Q1 $1.63B
2026Q2 $1.65B
2026Q3E $1.65B
2026Q4E $1.65B
2027Q1E $1.64B
2027Q2E $1.65B
2027Q3E $1.65B
2027Q4E $1.65B
2028Q1E $1.66B
2028Q2E $1.66B
2028Q3E $1.67B
2028Q4E $1.67B
2029Q1E $1.68B
2029Q2E $1.69B
2029Q3E $1.70B
2029Q4E $1.71B
2030Q1E $1.72B
2030Q2E $1.73B
2030Q3E $1.74B
2030Q4E $1.75B
2031Q1E $1.76B
2031Q2E $1.77B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Aseasonal on the brief's evidence, and that is a finding rather than a gap. The observed factors span only 0.976 to 1.013, about 4pp peak to trough, against a window-to-window spread of 0.5 to 1.2pp; the Imbruvica loss-of-exclusivity trend dominates any calendar shape.
  • The model holds the portfolio at $6.57B in FY2026 against $6.66B reported for FY2025, then lets it recover to $6.94B by FY2030 - a 1.4% annual rate over the horizon, which is a mix shift, not a growth thesis.
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