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What has to happen in Other key products

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This page changes Other key products inside the complete ABBV model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

ABBV forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $303.96 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $842M 4% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $6.92B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

AbbVie buys the next immunology wave rather than growing it. Zumilokibart in atopic dermatitis and APG273 in asthma would add a second immunology engine beyond Skyrizi and Rinvoq. Modelled as a 6% step up in immunology revenue from 2029 Q3, three years after the announced close, which adds $3.09B to terminal-year revenue. What this case does NOT do: the $10.9 billion of equity value is not deducted from net cash and the $0.14 of 2026 EPS dilution is not in the path, so it is the revenue upside gross of what it costs.

Other key products

Basis quarter$935M
Final quarter$842M
Implied CAGR−2%
Final revenue mix4%

Mavyret, Creon and Linzess: three mature, mostly US products disclosed by revenue only. $935M in 2026 Q2, -9.8% year over year, with Mavyret down 22.2% operationally as the treated hepatitis C population shrinks.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.01B Reported
2025 Q4 $884M Reported
2026 Q1 $995M Reported
2026 Q2 $935M Reported
MavyretCreonLinzess
Sequential growth −0.8%/qtr decaying toward −0.3% -0.8% a quarter. The eight-quarter sequential rate is -0.35% and the last year -2.6%; this sits between them.
Other key products

Latest: $842M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q3 $963M
2023Q4 $968M
2024Q1 $900M
2024Q2 $962M
2024Q3 $874M
2024Q4 $912M
2025Q1 $809M
2025Q2 $1.04B
2025Q3 $1.01B
2025Q4 $884M
2026Q1 $995M
2026Q2 $935M
2026Q3E $928M
2026Q4E $921M
2027Q1E $914M
2027Q2E $908M
2027Q3E $902M
2027Q4E $897M
2028Q1E $892M
2028Q2E $887M
2028Q3E $882M
2028Q4E $878M
2029Q1E $874M
2029Q2E $870M
2029Q3E $866M
2029Q4E $862M
2030Q1E $859M
2030Q2E $855M
2030Q3E $852M
2030Q4E $849M
2031Q1E $846M
2031Q2E $842M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Aseasonal by evidence: the window-to-window spread of 6.0 to 10.2pp exceeds the apparent seasonal signal on every single quarter, so encoding factors here would encode noise.
  • The line is genuinely lumpy quarter to quarter - deseasonalised sequential moves in the disclosed history run from -19.9% to +18.3% - so the level, not any one quarter's growth rate, is the input. Linzess grew 41.8% for the half on a US basis that includes a comparability change.
  • Model FY2026 is $3.78B against $3.74B reported for FY2025, falling to $3.42B by FY2030.
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