XIACY · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-20

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Four decisions decide how this model reads. First, the verticals are Xiaomi's five disclosed revenue lines and nothing finer: smartphones, IoT and lifestyle products, internet services, smart EV with AI and other new initiatives, and the other-related residual. Xiaomi publishes a gross margin for each of the first four and an operating result for the fifth segment only, so revenue and gross margin are disclosed and every EBITDA margin here is ours - an allocation of the RMB19.4bn of quarterly operating expense the company reports only at group level, with an assumed depreciation add-back. Nothing below gross profit is split by the company. Second, the currency. Xiaomi reports in renminbi and publishes no US dollar convenience translation, so every figure here is converted at the rate implied by each quarter's own stored consolidated revenue on this site - 7.2332 for the June 2025 quarter through 6.8046 for June 2026. That is deliberate: it makes the five verticals sum to the reported consolidated dollar figure to within one dollar in all five quarters, and it means the growth rates carry the exchange rate with them. Revenue fell 6.1% in renminbi and 0.1% in dollars over the year to June 2026. Third, what is estimated. The June 2026 quarter is disclosed in full and is the basis. Four earlier figures are ours: the December 2025 smartphone line, which is the full-year total less the other three quarters; the June 2025 internet services line, derived from the disclosed -0.6% year-over-year change; the September 2025 smart EV segment, which is the full-year total less the other three quarters; and every other-related quarter except June 2026, which is the residual after the four named lines. Those quarters are flagged, and a flag on any vertical flags the consolidated quarter with it. Fourth, three driver kinds rather than one. Smartphones and vehicles are modelled as units times price because Xiaomi discloses both halves every quarter and because in the June 2026 quarter they moved hard in opposite directions - a single growth rate would have hidden the whole story. Internet services is modelled as users times ARPU because monthly active users are disclosed; the ARPU itself is our division of two reported numbers and is not a company metric. IoT and the residual use growth rates because no unit, price or user figure exists for them in the public record. Two figures are softer than they look. Net cash of -$301m counts only the RMB37,252.4m of cash and cash equivalents disclosed at 30 June 2026 against RMB39.3bn of total borrowings; it excludes short-term investments the results announcement does not detail, so it understates liquidity - and at $0.06 per ADS either way it changes nothing. And the share count of 5,301,755,400 is the diluted weighted average of 26,508,777 thousand ordinary shares divided by five, because one XIACY ADR is five ordinary shares. The $17.70 price is a build-time snapshot and the page resolves the live quote instead.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.