XIACY · Forward model · Smartphones · Bear case
What has to happen in Smartphones
Model as of
This page changes Smartphones inside the complete XIACY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Smartphones
The acquisition engine, deliberately shrinking. Xiaomi shipped 31.2 million phones in the June quarter, down 26.5% year over year, while pushing average selling price to a record RMB1,351 - up 25.9%. The strategy is working on its own terms: phones at RMB3,000 or more reached 32.1% of Chinese mainland units, a record. It produced an 8.5% gross margin anyway, because memory cost more than the price increase recovered. This line is not where the profit is and has not been for years. It is where the 766 million monthly active users come from, which is where the profit is.
Latest: $5.20B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q2 | $6.29B |
| 2025Q3 | $6.43B |
| 2025Q4 | $6.25B |
| 2026Q1 | $6.40B |
| 2026Q2 | $6.19B |
| 2026Q3E | $6.14B |
| 2026Q4E | $6.10B |
| 2027Q1E | $6.05B |
| 2027Q2E | $6.00B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.95B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.90B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.85B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.80B |
| 2028Q3E | $5.75B |
| 2028Q4E | $5.70B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.65B |
| 2029Q2E | $5.60B |
| 2029Q3E | $5.55B |
| 2029Q4E | $5.50B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.45B |
| 2030Q2E | $5.40B |
| 2030Q3E | $5.35B |
| 2030Q4E | $5.30B |
| 2031Q1E | $5.25B |
| 2031Q2E | $5.20B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Gross margin of 8.5% is disclosed. The 1.0% EBITDA margin is ours: it loads this line with a share of the RMB19.4bn of quarterly operating expense that Xiaomi reports only for the group, and adds back an assumed share of depreciation. Xiaomi publishes no operating profit for the smartphone line.
- The terminal 6% assumes memory prices normalise and the premium mix built during the squeeze survives it. Both halves have to be true. If memory stays where it is and the mix reverts, this line runs closer to 2% and the model loses roughly a tenth of its value.
- Units and price are modelled independently, which is the point: the June quarter is the first in years where they moved hard in opposite directions, and a single growth rate would have hidden it entirely.