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XIACY · Forward model · IoT and lifestyle products · Bear case

What has to happen in IoT and lifestyle products

Model as of

This page changes IoT and lifestyle products inside the complete XIACY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

XIACY forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $9.30 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $4.70B 27% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $4.87B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Memory stays expensive, the premium mix reverts when it does, and the Chinese electric-vehicle price war reaches Xiaomi's segment before its volume does. Terminal revenue lands about 20% below base. What this case does NOT say is that Xiaomi breaks: internet services at a 76.8% gross margin is untouched by both problems, and it is the line that keeps group EBITDA positive throughout. The bear case here is a company that stops compounding, not one that stops earning.

IoT and lifestyle products

Basis quarter$4.60B
Final quarter$4.70B
Implied CAGR0%
Final revenue mix27%

The lock-in engine. RMB31.3 billion in the June quarter at a 20.1% gross margin, with 1.16 billion connected devices on the platform, up 17.4%. Revenue fell 19.2% year over year as Chinese appliance subsidies faded and overseas growth only partly offset it, which is what makes this the most cyclical line in the company. Its job is not margin. Its job is to raise the number of Xiaomi devices in a household, because a user with five is a different user from one with one.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $3.86B Reported
2025 Q4 $3.47B Reported
2026 Q1 $3.57B Reported
2026 Q2 $4.60B Reported
Smart home appliancesTablets and laptopsWearables and TWS earbudsOther lifestyle products
Sequential growth +1.5%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% 1.5% a quarter. Overseas double-digit growth against a Chinese subsidy fade that has already done its worst.
IoT and lifestyle products

Latest: $4.70B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q2 $5.35B
2025Q3 $3.86B
2025Q4 $3.47B
2026Q1 $3.57B
2026Q2 $4.60B
2026Q3E $4.62B
2026Q4E $4.63B
2027Q1E $4.65B
2027Q2E $4.66B
2027Q3E $4.67B
2027Q4E $4.68B
2028Q1E $4.68B
2028Q2E $4.69B
2028Q3E $4.69B
2028Q4E $4.70B
2029Q1E $4.70B
2029Q2E $4.70B
2029Q3E $4.70B
2029Q4E $4.70B
2030Q1E $4.70B
2030Q2E $4.70B
2030Q3E $4.70B
2030Q4E $4.70B
2031Q1E $4.70B
2031Q2E $4.70B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • A growth driver is the honest choice here and not the lazy one. Xiaomi discloses connected device count and revenue but no unit shipments, no average price and no category split with economics attached, so a unit driver would need a price per device that does not exist in the public record.
  • This line is seasonal - air conditioners peak in the June quarter, which is most of why revenue rose 26.7% sequentially while falling 19.2% year over year. The projection is smooth and the history is not. Read the annual totals rather than individual projected quarters.
  • The 20.1% gross margin is disclosed; the 10% EBITDA margin is our allocation of group operating expense and is the input most likely to be wrong in either direction.
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