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VST · Forward model · Ongoing Operations · Bear case

What has to happen in Ongoing Operations

Model as of

This page changes Ongoing Operations inside the complete VST model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

VST forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $20.45 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.86B 100% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $16.67B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Power prices roll over as 2028 hedges drop to 72%, Cogentrix slips, and Meta deliveries miss 2027. What this case does NOT assume is another Uri or a loss of the TXU retail book. It says 2026 was the peak realised-price year.

Ongoing Operations

Basis quarter$4.02B
Final quarter$3.86B
Implied CAGR−1%
Final revenue mix100%

Integrated retail plus generation after Asset Closure. $4,017M of GAAP operating revenues, −5.5% year over year, and $1,767M of ongoing adj EBITDA, +31%. What paces it is the fleet and the hedge book. No quarterly MW-earning series is published, so the projection is sequential growth on the filed total.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $4.97B Reported
2025 Q4 $4.58B Reported
2026 Q1 $5.64B Reported
2026 Q2 $4.02B Reported
Retail electricity (TXU, Dynegy, Ambit)Texas generation (ERCOT)East generation (PJM nuclear and gas)West generation
Sequential growth +8.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% 8% QoQ. Q3 is summer. 2025 Q3/Q2 was +17%. 8% is a milder step, not a repeat of Q1's $5.6B hedge print.
Ongoing Operations

Latest: $3.86B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $3.93B
2025Q2 $4.25B
2025Q3 $4.97B
2025Q4 $4.58B
2026Q1 $5.64B
2026Q2 $4.02B
2026Q3E $4.21B
2026Q4E $4.36B
2027Q1E $4.47B
2027Q2E $4.54B
2027Q3E $4.59B
2027Q4E $4.61B
2028Q1E $4.62B
2028Q2E $4.60B
2028Q3E $4.57B
2028Q4E $4.53B
2029Q1E $4.48B
2029Q2E $4.42B
2029Q3E $4.36B
2029Q4E $4.30B
2030Q1E $4.23B
2030Q2E $4.15B
2030Q3E $4.08B
2030Q4E $4.01B
2031Q1E $3.94B
2031Q2E $3.86B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Do not add Retail + Texas + East + West. Q2 10-Q geos sum to $6,053M before $(2,036)M of eliminations — generation sold to retail. The $4,017M is the external number.
  • Opening 8% is a summer step. Combined with 44% adj-EBITDA margin it does not try to hit $7.2B of 2026 EBITDA via hedge-marked GAAP revenue. That guide is the claim, not the arithmetic of this line.
  • Margin 44% is ongoing adj EBITDA $1,767M / $4,017M. GAAP operating income $553M is after D&A. Terminal 40% walks off a strong realised-price quarter.
  • Q2 capex $689M is 17% of revenue including nuclear fuel. 2026 guide $1,536M is the 8% terminal. Helix's $1B sits in corporate programmes, not here.
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