← VST forward model

VST · Forward model · Ongoing Operations · Meta PPAs case

What has to happen in Ongoing Operations

Model as of

This page changes Ongoing Operations inside the complete VST model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

VST forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $321.39 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $11.02B 100% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $41.49B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

20-year PPAs with Meta covering 2,609 MW across Perry, Davis-Besse and Beaver Valley. Deliveries begin late 2026, full operating volume by year-end 2027, uprates from 2031. AWS 1,200 MW at Comanche Peak sits alongside. 2026 guidance and the 2027 midpoint opportunity both exclude Meta. This case pays for a 2027 contribution on the same single line. It does not invent a PPA dollar amount or treat Cogentrix as closed.

Ongoing Operations

Basis quarter$4.02B
Final quarter$11.02B
Implied CAGR+22%
Final revenue mix100%

Integrated retail plus generation after Asset Closure. $4,017M of GAAP operating revenues, −5.5% year over year, and $1,767M of ongoing adj EBITDA, +31%. What paces it is the fleet and the hedge book. No quarterly MW-earning series is published, so the projection is sequential growth on the filed total.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $4.97B Reported
2025 Q4 $4.58B Reported
2026 Q1 $5.64B Reported
2026 Q2 $4.02B Reported
Retail electricity (TXU, Dynegy, Ambit)Texas generation (ERCOT)East generation (PJM nuclear and gas)West generation
Sequential growth +8.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% 8% QoQ. Q3 is summer. 2025 Q3/Q2 was +17%. 8% is a milder step, not a repeat of Q1's $5.6B hedge print.
Ongoing Operations

Latest: $11.02B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $3.93B
2025Q2 $4.25B
2025Q3 $4.97B
2025Q4 $4.58B
2026Q1 $5.64B
2026Q2 $4.02B
2026Q3E $4.40B
2026Q4E $4.78B
2027Q1E $5.14B
2027Q2E $5.50B
2027Q3E $5.84B
2027Q4E $6.18B
2028Q1E $6.51B
2028Q2E $6.84B
2028Q3E $7.17B
2028Q4E $7.50B
2029Q1E $7.82B
2029Q2E $8.15B
2029Q3E $8.49B
2029Q4E $8.82B
2030Q1E $9.17B
2030Q2E $9.52B
2030Q3E $9.88B
2030Q4E $10.25B
2031Q1E $10.63B
2031Q2E $11.02B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Do not add Retail + Texas + East + West. Q2 10-Q geos sum to $6,053M before $(2,036)M of eliminations — generation sold to retail. The $4,017M is the external number.
  • Opening 8% is a summer step. Combined with 44% adj-EBITDA margin it does not try to hit $7.2B of 2026 EBITDA via hedge-marked GAAP revenue. That guide is the claim, not the arithmetic of this line.
  • Margin 44% is ongoing adj EBITDA $1,767M / $4,017M. GAAP operating income $553M is after D&A. Terminal 40% walks off a strong realised-price quarter.
  • Q2 capex $689M is 17% of revenue including nuclear fuel. 2026 guide $1,536M is the 8% terminal. Helix's $1B sits in corporate programmes, not here.
VST model map

Explore another vertical