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VST · Forward model · Ongoing Operations · Bull case

What has to happen in Ongoing Operations

Model as of

This page changes Ongoing Operations inside the complete VST model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

VST forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $314.89 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $10.55B 100% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $40.38B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Realised prices stay high, Lotus annualises, and Helix load shows up as power demand. What this case does NOT reach is the Meta PPAs as a numbered 2027 print — that is the named case — and it does not assume Cogentrix is closed.

Ongoing Operations

Basis quarter$4.02B
Final quarter$10.55B
Implied CAGR+21%
Final revenue mix100%

Integrated retail plus generation after Asset Closure. $4,017M of GAAP operating revenues, −5.5% year over year, and $1,767M of ongoing adj EBITDA, +31%. What paces it is the fleet and the hedge book. No quarterly MW-earning series is published, so the projection is sequential growth on the filed total.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $4.97B Reported
2025 Q4 $4.58B Reported
2026 Q1 $5.64B Reported
2026 Q2 $4.02B Reported
Retail electricity (TXU, Dynegy, Ambit)Texas generation (ERCOT)East generation (PJM nuclear and gas)West generation
Sequential growth +8.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% 8% QoQ. Q3 is summer. 2025 Q3/Q2 was +17%. 8% is a milder step, not a repeat of Q1's $5.6B hedge print.
Ongoing Operations

Latest: $10.55B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $3.93B
2025Q2 $4.25B
2025Q3 $4.97B
2025Q4 $4.58B
2026Q1 $5.64B
2026Q2 $4.02B
2026Q3E $4.43B
2026Q4E $4.82B
2027Q1E $5.19B
2027Q2E $5.56B
2027Q3E $5.90B
2027Q4E $6.24B
2028Q1E $6.56B
2028Q2E $6.88B
2028Q3E $7.18B
2028Q4E $7.49B
2029Q1E $7.79B
2029Q2E $8.08B
2029Q3E $8.38B
2029Q4E $8.68B
2030Q1E $8.98B
2030Q2E $9.29B
2030Q3E $9.59B
2030Q4E $9.91B
2031Q1E $10.23B
2031Q2E $10.55B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Do not add Retail + Texas + East + West. Q2 10-Q geos sum to $6,053M before $(2,036)M of eliminations — generation sold to retail. The $4,017M is the external number.
  • Opening 8% is a summer step. Combined with 44% adj-EBITDA margin it does not try to hit $7.2B of 2026 EBITDA via hedge-marked GAAP revenue. That guide is the claim, not the arithmetic of this line.
  • Margin 44% is ongoing adj EBITDA $1,767M / $4,017M. GAAP operating income $553M is after D&A. Terminal 40% walks off a strong realised-price quarter.
  • Q2 capex $689M is 17% of revenue including nuclear fuel. 2026 guide $1,536M is the 8% terminal. Helix's $1B sits in corporate programmes, not here.
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